Bitcoin All Time High: Can Macro Factors, ETF Hope and Golden Cross Spur BTC Upwards?
After flashing a golden cross yesterday and with positive news today, is Bitcoin's macro target confirmed?
Key Takeaways
- Multiple Bitcoin ETFs coming?
- Moody downgrades major financial institutions
- Traditional space bullish on Bitcoin
- Both on-chain data and chart analysis point to a high of $35,600
- A macro target of $135,000 looks likely
The crypto market has been showing low activity since mid-July and was mostly stagnant. Some altcoins have jumped prior which was led by the positive sentiment driven by SEC vs XRP outcome. In the meantime, Bitcoin was moving sideways and even decreased from its June high.
The tides may have been shifting, and we can see some positive news impacting the market sentiment. This is due to the new ETF launch date speculation and Moody rutting down rates on major banks.
Cathie Wood from Ark Invest believes that the Securities and Exchange Commission will approve more ETFs at the same time. Mike Novogratz CEO of Galaxy and crypto permabull now confirms his sources from BlackRock and Invesco are telling him that ETFs are coming within four to six months. Private Equity billionaire David Rubenstein is also bullish on Bitcoin considering growing institutional interest.
This paints a positive overall picture as the sentiment toward traditional financial institutions and the monetary system turns negative. But is this enough to spark another bull run in Bitcoin?
Bitcoin Price Analysis
The price of Bitcoin reacted positively to this news and bullish sentiment. We have seen a price spike of 5.57% from its Monday, August 7 low of $28,643, measured to its highest point today, August 9, of $30,240.
Looking at the 4-hour chart we can see that the price spike made today reached the vicinity of the prior high made on August 2. This is the territory of multiple resistance points which is why we are currently seeing some signs of struggle. Namely the horizontal resistance, prior support, and the still unconfirmed descending trendline from the triangle that started in the ending days of June.
MACD has signaled the starting of an uptrend as the signal line crossed the MACD line on August 7, and the simple moving average of 20 is starting to go above the 100 moving average – another indication of the starting uptrend. RSI is close to the overbought territory but hasn’t managed to go inside it.
These indicators could be signaling that a breakout to the upside from the descending triangle is ahead with a higher high above $32,000 can be seen in the following days.
Buying Pressure Seen On-Chain?
Looking at the on-chain metrics, we can see some bullish signs providing insight into buying pressure. Most notably, that is an increase in Bitcoin: Taker Buy Sell Ratio – All Exchanges from Cryptoquant . This ratio measures the buy volume divided by the sell volume of takers in perpetual swap trades. Values over 1 indicate bullish sentiment is dominant, while values under 1 indicate bearish sentiment is dominant.
It spiked upwards from August 4, when it was 0.944, to 1.096 on yesterday’s high. It has decreased since around 1 mark, but the 7-day SMA is still showing an uptrend.
Open interest , or the number of open positions (including both long and short), was also on the rise and made a higher high to the one in June. An increase in open interest indicates more liquidity and volatility ahead of the asset price.
The funding rate is also on the rise since and has been on a continuous uptrend since July 22. With positive values, it indicates that long position traders are dominant and are willing to pay funding to short traders.
The derivatives market is showing an increase in activity, but on-chain accumulation is following. From mid-July the number of Bitcoin held in exchanges wallets has been increasing up until August 1. Since then it started decreasing again and is now back again on the same levels as before the rise. This means that investors are withdrawing Bitcoin from exchanges into their private wallets, indicating accumulation.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
In our yesterday analysis, we pointed out a historically significant golden cross for the price of Bitcoin. In light of this new positive sentiment, can we confirm our macro outlook at $135,000?
If the price of Bitcoin is now headed higher, the next mid-term target would be around $35,600. This would complete the five-wave pattern from June 18, 2022. As this would only be the first sub-wave of the bullish cycle, the first major correction would be expected as an ABC to the downside for wave 2.
Projecting further targets by assuming wave 1 at $35,600 and wave 2 target around 0.618 Fib retracement of wave 1 at $22,500 the target for wave 3 comes up to $84,000, which would be a new all-time high.
As the structure should advance for two more waves, and with the possibility of wave 3 going further above the optimal 1.618 Fib level, the target for wave 5 comes to around $135,000, which is what we stated in our macro outlook yesterday.
Conclusion
With some stagnant price action from June and even a minor decline, the price of Bitcoin has provided an indication that it wants to go higher. Another higher high would now be expected to be $35,600 but that might just mark the completion of this whole uptrend from June 18, 2022.
On-chain data suggest that buying pressure is coming, which supports the projection both in the near-term and in the mid-term. If this new higher high occurs the likelihood of our macro bullish outlooks will be much higher and the $135,000 all-time high will be on the table for next year.
Disclaimer
Please note that the contents of this article are not financial or investing advice. The information provided in this article is the author’s opinion only and should not be considered as offering trading or investing recommendations. We do not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability and accuracy of this information. The cryptocurrency market suffers from high volatility and occasional arbitrary movements. Any investor, trader, or regular crypto users should research multiple viewpoints and be familiar with all local regulations before committing to an investment.
