The price of Bitcoin has been moving sideways since July 24, when it fell from $30,292 to $28,900. However, we saw a significant upward price spike of 4.3% on August 1, but it quickly came back inside of its sideways range.
There is now a rare indicator flashing a bull signal, it could be an early indication that a move to the upside would be expected.
The golden cross is not a rare indicator of itself. It is a common indicator that means that the faster (lower length) moving average is crossing, the slower (higher length) moving average from the upside. This indicates that the price has started to trend upward. If the opposite happens, it is called a death cross, which indicates the starting downtrend. Higher length values and broader time frames bring more validity to the cross strategy.
On the weekly chart above, we can see that the golden cross is starting to show. The 20-day moving average is going above the 200-day moving average, which has never occurred in this fashion.
In the history of Bitcoin, we have only seen two occasions when a similar indication was made, and they were both around bear market bottoms – September 28, 2015, and April 1, 2019. In September 2015, we saw the 20 SMA going briefly below 200 SMA and then back above it, while in April 2019, an interaction was made but not the cross.
For this third time, the 20 SMA went below the 200 SMA in September 2020, and stayed there for 336 days before now making it back above.
Can this signal the starting bull market with the price of Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs?
Drawing a curved channel in which the price of Bitcoin has been trading since the beginning of price history, we can see that all of the highs and lows are perfectly respected. Out of those, the June 18, 2022, low was yet another retest of the channel’s support.
As a bounce was made from the support level and the price recovered by 110%, there is a strong possibility that we have seen the start of a bull cycle from there. If this is the case, and based on the golden cross chart, the price of Bitcoin could be headed toward a new all-time high.
It is still very early to discuss these targets, but the curved channel we have drawn gives us a target of $135,461.
On June 18 last year, we saw the price of Bitcoin falling to $15,240 at its lowest point. In Bitcoin’s history, the bear market bottoms were usually higher than their previous bull market tops.
This cycle was the first time in the history of Bitcoin that the price fell below the previous bull cycle top, which correlates with what we have seen on the Golden Cross chart – the 20 SMA moving 336 days below the 200 SMA for the first time in history. You can see by the white rectangle’s that this distance is getting shorter with each cycle and has now gotten negative in this one.
It could have meant that the price of Bitcoin below $20,000 was extremely undervalued. With only the first wave seen – from June 18, 2022, until now, it is still not clear whether or not the price is in a bull cycle or in the mid-bear market correction.
Another low to $11,000 is still on the table, so a stronger confirmation will be received on the next descending move. Namely, we need to see the first higher low compared to June 18, 2022.
But if we are in a starting bull cycle, the $135,461 could be a modest one with only 320% more to go, measured to the current level of $29,200.
Please note that the contents of this article are not financial or investing advice. The information provided in this article is the author’s opinion only and should not be considered as offering trading or investing recommendations. We do not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability and accuracy of this information. The cryptocurrency market suffers from high volatility and occasional arbitrary movements. Any investor, trader, or regular crypto users should research multiple viewpoints and be familiar with all local regulations before committing to an investment.