HBAR’s early January rally has stalled | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
HBAR price has broken below the support line of the bull flag formed earlier.
The CMF shows rising distribution, indicating that the market value could drop.
HBAR trades under the key resistance level, anticipating a 30% short-term decline.
Hedera (HBAR) emerged as one of the standout performers in the final quarter of 2024. Building on that performance, HBAR hinted at continuing the uptrend earlier this month.
However, as January nears its final week, the altcoin appears to have lost this momentum.
With this change in trend, HBAR’s price risks undergoing a notable decline if nothing is done to alter the current outlook. Here is why.
On Jan. 16, HBAR rallied to $0.40. Thereafter, the price dropped, consolidating between $0.35 and $0.37.
This decline led to the formation of a bull flag on the 4-hour chart, which indicated that the range-bound movement would only last a while, after which the token’s uptrend would continue.
For context, a bull flag is an upward continuation pattern formed by a sharp upward movement known as the “flagpole,” followed by a period of consolidation that forms a rectangular shape, referred to as the “flag.”
But on Jan.20, HBAR price dropped below the support line of the flag at $0.35. This breakdown invalidated the bullish thesis and extended the decrease, placing the cryptocurrency’s market value at $0.32.
The daily chart’s assessment also seems to agree with the signs displayed in the 4-hour timeframe. Specifically, CCN examined the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF).
The CMF ranges between -1 and +1 and measures the level of accumulation and distribution around a cryptocurrency. Reading close to + indicates a high level of accumulation, while those near -1 imply rising distribution.
As of this writing, the CMF on the HBAR/USD daily chart has dropped below the zero midpoint. Dropping under this neutral region confirms that buying pressure around the altcoin has faded.
In addition, the decline in HBAR’s price has driven it below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which is a significant resistance zone.
This decline below this level indicates that the token’s ability to resist another downtrend has become significantly weaker. Therefore, it is unlikely that the HBAR will experience a quick bounce in the short term.
Therefore, as stated above, an extended decrease could be expected amid the rising selling pressure. If this trend remains the same, HBAR’s price might decrease to the 0.50 Fib retracement point at $0.22, an anticipated 30% decline.
However, the anticipated price decrease may not materialize if demand for the token rises. There has also been speculation that HBAR, a U.S.-founded cryptocurrency, could secure a spot in Donald Trump’s crypto reserve.
The approval of the HBAR spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) could also impact a positive price movement.
This 30% correction might not become a reality if that happens sooner than expected. On the contrary, HBAR could rally beyond $0.40 and inch toward $1.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
