XRP whale addresses holding between 1 million and 10 million tokens shed roughly 50 million XRP between March 29 and April 2.
Binance transaction volume collapsed to its lowest levels of 2025, signaling deteriorating demand from both large holders and everyday traders.
U.S. XRP spot ETFs posted their first monthly net outflow since launch in March, snapping a four-month inflow streak.
With XRP’s Aroon Down line at 92.86% and the price trading below the 20-day EMA, a breakdown toward the year-to-date low of $1.11 is possible.
Ripple’s XRP is down 3% over the past seven days. The altcoin now trades near the support floor that has held its price from breaking below its sideways pattern since mid-March.
With technical and on-chain signals now converging to the downside, XRP risks breaking this floor and falling toward its year-to-date low of $1.11 in the coming sessions.
Transaction Activity Collapses to 2025 Lows
One of the clearest warning signs is the sharp drop in XRP’s network activity. In a new report, a pseudonymous CryptoQuant analyst, Arab Chain, found that XRP transaction volume on leading exchange Binance has fallen to its lowest levels since 2025, pointing to weakening demand fundamentals.
According to Arab Chain, “the total number of deposit transactions over the past 30 days reached approximately 310,500, while withdrawal transactions totaled around 329,400, resulting in a net negative transaction count of approximately -18,900.”
For context, deposit and withdrawal transactions “were considerably higher during 2025, sometimes exceeding 6 million transactions over a 30-day period, before beginning a sharp decline in mid-2025.”
When transaction activity around an asset falls at this level, fewer participants are actively trading it, a precondition for sustained price weakness.
On what this means, Arab Chain noted:
“This significant drop in activity indicates declining short-term investor interest, coupled with reduced speculative activity, reflecting a period of relative market calm. In such cases, periods of low activity are often associated with reduced price volatility, as buying and selling pressures decrease simultaneously.”
The stagnant transaction activity does not occur in isolation. For XRP, it comes alongside a broader deterioration in both on-chain participation and spot market demand, strengthening the risk of a price breakdown
Whale Activity Pulls Back
On-chain data shows a notable decline in the wallet holdings of a key whale cohort since late March, a sign that big-money activity is cooling.
Per Santiment, XRP whales holding between 1 million and 10 million tokens have seen their combined holdings drop from 3.80 billion XRP on March 29 to around 3.75 billion XRP by April 2. This represents a drawdown of roughly 50 million XRP within four days.
When large investors reduce their holdings, particularly during periods of sideways trade like this, it indicates low conviction in any near-term rally from this group.
Sideways markets are typically where whales either quietly accumulate or hold steady, building positions ahead of the next directional move. When they choose to offload instead, it signals that the smart money is not convinced that the floor will hold.
The implication for XRP is straightforward. With whales reducing exposure rather than adding at current prices, the token lacks sufficient demand to sustain the $1.31 support floor.
U.S. XRP Spot ETFs Post First Monthly Outflow Since Launch
In March, U.S.-listed XRP spot ETFs recorded their first monthly net outflow since Canary Capital launched the first of such funds in November 2025.
According to SoSoValue data, the outflow snapped a four-month inflow streak that had seen the products pull in a $1.24 billion since November.
Total net assets, which peaked above $1.24 billion in December, have since fallen to $916.73 million, mirroring XRP’s price decline over the same period.
With XRP’s lackluster price performance continuing into the new month, SoSoValue data shows $1.25 million in net outflows already recorded in April. If outflows deepen through the month, it may further dampen sentiment and push the token’s value lower.
Why Caution Is Key
On the daily chart, XRP’s Aroon indicator confirms this bearish stance. At press time, the Aroon Up line sits at 0% while the Aroon Down line is at 92.86%, a near-maximum bearish reading.
XRP/USD Daily Chart | Credit: TradingView
The Aroon indicator measures the strength and direction of a trend by analyzing the time since an asset’s recent highs (Aroon Up) and lows (Aroon Down). When the Down line is at or near 100% while the Up line hovers near 0%, it signals that the asset has recently made lows with no recent highs.
It confirms that side pressure is significant among XRP spot traders and may push its price below the the $1.31 support floor.
Moreover, XRP currently trades below its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), forming dynamic resistance at $1.36.
The 20-day EMA measures an asset’s average price over the past 20 trading days, giving more weight to recent prices. When it sits above price, as it currently does for XRP, it functions as dynamic resistance, a price level that the token must reclaim before any bullish rally can be realized.
With waning demand across on-chain activity, large holder participation, and spot ETF flows, XRP risks a daily close below the support floor at $1.31.
A break of this level would confirm that the sideways range held since mid-March has resolved to the downside, leaving XRP at risk of falling to its year-to-date low of $1.11.
On the other hand, if new demand re-emerges and XRP surges past the 20-day EMA, it could trigger a push above $1.42.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Abiodun Oladokun is a Research Analyst at CCN, where he covers cryptocurrency markets with a focus on on-chain analysis, technical assessments, and emerging trends across decentralized finance (DeFi), real-world assets (RWA), artificial intelligence (AI), decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN), Layer 2s, and meme coins.
Prior to CCN, he served as a Senior On-Chain Analyst at BeInCrypto, producing market reports spanning diverse crypto sectors.
Before that, he conducted technical analysis and market assessments of various altcoins at AMBCrypto, where he also contributed long-form quarterly research papers on DeFi, NFTs, DAOs, and scaling architectures, leveraging on-chain platforms including Messari, Santiment, DefiLlama, and Dune Analytics.
He began his crypto career as a research analyst at SixthSense DAO, developing blockchain forensic tools to trace the history of stolen assets.
Abiodun is a lawyer called to the Nigerian Bar and the founder of Ilé Ijó, a Lagos-based electronic dance music collective.
