Key Takeaways
The SEC vs Ripple case finally wrapped up on Aug. 7, with the latter being handed a $125 million penalty for selling XRP tokens. In 2020, the SEC sued Ripple for what they considered an illegal raise of over $1.3 billion in unregistered securities.
After the announcement, the price of XRP climbed above $0.60 and now attempts to break out from a long-term resistance trend line. Will this happen, and if so, how long will XRP continue to increase?
Judge Analisa Torres issued the fine because Ripple violated securities laws by selling XRP to institutions. She also prohibited the company from future securities law violations. Therefore, the court has partially granted and denied the SEC’s requests.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse considers the ruling a victory for Ripple, stating that the penalty is a massive reduction of what the SEC initially sought.
It is worth mentioning that Ripple countered with a proposal to pay $10 million, so the penalty is still much higher than what Ripple wanted. After the ruling, the price of XRP rose more than 20% and traded back above $0.60.
The weekly chart shows that XRP has fallen under a descending resistance trend line since July 2023. Combined with a support trend line that has existed for nearly 800 days, this creates a symmetrical triangle.
In July 2024, XRP’s price bounced at the triangle’s support trend line. Then, it created a higher low and is creating a bullish engulfing candlestick this week, all bullish signs.
Technical indicators also support the breakout. During the bounce, the RSI increased above 50, and the MACD moved above 0, both positive signs.
On top of this, the wave count aligns with the potential for a breakout. Since the ascending support trend line was created, the price of XRP has likely completed waves A and B of an A-B-C corrective structure (white). The sub-wave count for wave B is in black.
Giving wave C the same length as wave A leads to a high of $0.95. The height of the triangle from the projected breakout point gives a similar target of $1.02.
Therefore, if the price of XRP breaks out, it could increase to somewhere between $0.95 and $1.02, finally completing the long-term formation that started in 2022.