XRP tries to recover after a brutal quarter — here’s why long-term holders could decide its fate | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
Share
Key Takeaways
XRP exhibits weakness attempts as bearish structure remains in place.
Persistent LTH outflows create heavy overhead resistance zones
Failure to reclaim support could send XRP’s price toward $1.61.
XRP’s price has fallen below the critical $2 zone, revealing the weight of sustained selling from long-term holders.
According to CCN’s findings, this marks the first time the altcoin has fallen below the mark since April.
While short-term holders may hope that the next move will produce a rebound, this analysis suggests otherwise.
Here is what to expect from the altcoin in the short term, amid concerns about a prolonged bear market.
XRP Finally Loses Key Support
On the 4-hour chart, XRP’s price remains confined within a descending channel. Earlier, the price action showed signs of a potential rebound.
Unfortunately, the altcoin has slipped below the lower trendline, which continues to act as reliable support near $2.18. This rebound suggests that buyers have failed to defend the $2 zone.
Get These Top Crypto Casino Offers Now!
Sponsored
Disclosure
We sometimes use affiliate links in our content, when clicking on those we might receive a commission at no extra cost to you. By using this website you agree to our terms and conditions and privacy policy.
If these signals persist, XRP’s price is likely to trade lower in the short term, with the possibility of falling below $1.50.
Holders Resist Breakout
One potential headwind is emerging from long-term XRP holders (LTHs), whose recent behavior may cap the price before it can make a serious attempt toward the $3 region.
Glassnode data shows that XRP Hodler Net Position Change has remained negative since mid-October.
This metric tracks the monthly change in long-term investors’ positions, revealing when they accumulate (positive) or distribute (negative).
A sustained negative reading signals that seasoned holders are cashing out rather than increasing exposure.
Over the last four days, LTHs sold nearly 295 million XRP, worth approximately $600 million, reinforcing the broader trend of distribution.
Although this may seem small in isolation, the persistent selling pressure from long-term holders during a recovery phase typically acts as overhead resistance.
XRP Hodler Net Position Change | Credit: Glassnode
If LTH outflows continue, they could blunt XRP’s ability to rally beyond the immediate resistances at $2.55.
XRP Price Analysis: Trend Unclear
On the daily chart, XRP has yet to establish a decisive directional trend. The Supertrend indicator remains bearish, with its red line positioned above the current price, signaling that downward pressure is still in play.
Furthermore, the Money Flow Index (MFI) has yet to exhibit early signs of recovery, as the altcoin remains below the lower trendline of a symmetrical triangle.
If the MFI continues this trend, XRP’s price might fail to break above the $2.09 resistance level.
Failure to breach the resistance line could send the cryptocurrency to $1.61.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
