XRP is under pressure after breaking key support levels. Bearish and on-chain MVRV indicators suggest the token could fall below $1. | Credit: CCN.com
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Key Takeaways
XRP has broken below a critical support zone, falling below the $1.20-$1.22 range and putting the psychologically important $1 level at risk.
A separate bear flag formation points to an even steeper decline toward $0.94, implying roughly 15% downside from current levels.
Technical momentum remains weak, with XRP trading within a broader downtrend and struggling to reclaim key resistance levels.
XRP is facing mounting downside pressure after losing a critical support zone that had held firm for weeks.
Following a sharp market-wide selloff that dragged major cryptocurrencies lower, XRP broke beneath the $1.20-$1.22 range and is now trading near $1.11, putting the psychologically important $1 level back into focus.
While buyers have managed to defend the $1.08-$1.10 area for now, technical indicators suggest the recovery remains fragile and could be vulnerable to another wave of selling.
The broader trend continues to favor bears. XRP remains trapped inside a long-term descending channel, and recent price action has failed to generate the momentum needed to signal a meaningful reversal.
Instead, multiple bearish chart formations and weakening on-chain metrics are converging around similar downside targets, increasing the likelihood of a deeper correction if support levels fail.
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One of the clearest warning signs on XRP’s shorter timeframes is the emergence of a head-and-shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart.
This formation, widely viewed as a bearish reversal signal, consists of three peaks, with the middle peak higher than the other two. The key level to watch is the neckline support around $1.09.
If sellers force a decisive breakdown below the neckline, the pattern’s projected target is near $0.99.
Such a move would mark XRP’s first drop below the $1 threshold in months and could accelerate bearish sentiment across the market.
However, the pattern is not yet confirmed. A recovery above $1.12 and sustained buying pressure could invalidate the setup and open the door for a short-term rebound.
Until that happens, the risk remains tilted toward further downside.
Bear Flag Formation Points to a Move Toward $0.94
Adding to the bearish outlook is the development of a bear flag pattern on the 4-hour timeframe.
Bear flags typically form after a sharp decline, followed by a period of consolidation that slopes slightly upward before the prevailing downtrend resumes.
XRP is testing the lower edge of a bear flag. | Credit: TradingView
This is precisely the structure XRP has been forming after its recent collapse. The flag’s lower boundary currently sits near $1.10, making it a critical level for short-term traders.
A confirmed close below this support would activate the pattern and imply a downside target around $0.94, representing roughly a 15% decline from current prices.
Momentum indicators support this bearish scenario. XRP’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the neutral 50 level, signaling that sellers continue to maintain control of the market.
Unless buyers can reclaim the $1.15-$1.20 resistance zone, any near-term bounce is likely to be viewed as a temporary relief rally rather than the start of a sustained recovery.
On-Chain Data Suggests XRP Has Not Reached Capitulation Levels Yet
Beyond chart patterns, on-chain data also points to the possibility of additional losses.
During previous bear market cycles in 2018, 2020, and 2022, XRP typically declined toward lower MVRV pricing bands before establishing a durable bottom.
Based on current readings, those historical stress zones align with prices near $0.96, reinforcing the bearish targets derived from technical analysis.
Despite the negative price action, one notable countertrend remains. Spot XRP ETFs have continued attracting strong inflows, with institutional investors adding exposure even as the token declines.
While this divergence could eventually provide support, ETF demand has not yet translated into meaningful buying pressure on the chart.
For now, XRP remains at a critical crossroads. Support between $1.08 and $1.10 must hold to prevent a deeper breakdown. If that area fails, bearish targets between $0.94 and $0.99 become increasingly likely.
Conversely, a recovery above $1.12-$1.15 would weaken the current bearish outlook and suggest that buyers are beginning to regain control.
Giuseppe Ciccomascolo began his career as an investigative journalist in Italy, where he contributed to both local and national newspapers, focusing on various financial sectors.
Upon relocating to London, he worked as an analyst for Fitch's CapitalStructure and later as a Senior Reporter for Alliance News. In 2017, Giuseppe transitioned to covering cryptocurrency-related news, producing documentaries and articles on Bitcoin and other emerging digital currencies. He also played a pivotal role in establishing the academy for a cryptocurrency exchange website. Crypto remained his primary area of interest throughout his tenure as a writer for ThirdFloor.
