Home / Analysis / Crypto / Technical Analysis / Sam Altman Wins. Elon Musk Loses. Worldcoin (WLD) Should Be Moving — So Why Is the 40% Decline Still There?
WLD is unlikely to erase its losses | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
Worldcoin stayed weak near $0.25 despite OpenAI’s courtroom victory, indicating no link to OpenAI’s actual business growth.
Regulatory scrutiny, ongoing token unlocks, and rising exchange inflows continue to create heavy sell pressure on the token.
Technically, WLD is attempting a recovery above $0.23, but bulls must break $0.30 to confirm stronger upside momentum.
On paper, Elon Musk losing his lawsuit against Sam Altman’s OpenAI should have been the catalyst Worldcoin needed.
A legal victory for the co-founder behind WLD, a cleared cloud over OpenAI’s legitimacy, and a narrative moment that the market could have used to close the gap on a 90-day 40% decline.
Instead, Worldcoin’s price barely moved, reaching a new all-time low around the time of judgment.
Despite the news dominating global media coverage, WLD remains trapped around $0.25. So why isn’t Worldcoin moving?
No $134B for Elon Musk
On Monday, May 18, 2026, a California federal jury unanimously rejected Musk’s high-profile $134 billion lawsuit against OpenAI, ruling that his claims surrounding the company’s for-profit transition were filed outside the statute of limitations.
The verdict represents a monumental win for Altman and removes a major regulatory overhang ahead of OpenAI’s highly anticipated IPO.
Normally, traders would expect Worldcoin’s price to rally on such a major headline. But it did not.
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Worldcoin is not OpenAI. Although Sam Altman co-founded both projects, Worldcoin does not directly generate revenue from ChatGPT subscriptions.
Also, the crypto project is not tied to OpenAI enterprise licensing, Microsoft’s multi-billion-dollar partnership with OpenAI, nor the Future OpenAI IPO valuation growth.
This disconnect is becoming increasingly important.
Retail traders initially treated WLD as an indirect proxy for AI exposure. However, markets are now beginning to distinguish between OpenAI’s commercial success and Worldcoin’s actual economic fundamentals.
If that happens, the next target would likely be near $0.30.
However, the broader structure is still fragile. If Worldcoin’s price loses the $0.23 support zone again, the breakout attempt would fail, and sellers could regain control quickly.
Other Reasons Revealed
Another major issue weighing on WLD is the growing global crackdown on Worldcoin’s biometric identity infrastructure.
The project’s core onboarding mechanism, the Orb iris-scanning network, continues facing serious scrutiny from regulators across Europe, South Korea, and Latin America.
Even beyond regulatory concerns, WLD is still facing one of the harshest supply-side environments in crypto.
Worldcoin remains deep inside its multi-year linear token unlock schedule.
From an on-chain perspective, WLD exchange net position data shows an increase in tokens flowing onto exchanges, with inflows accelerating again over the past several days.
Historically, large positive exchange net position changes signal rising sell-side pressure. Therefore, it appears that the Worldcoin price 6% daily increase could be at risk.
What makes this notable is that WLD’s price has slightly increased despite sustained inflows. This suggests the market is currently absorbing the added supply.
WLD Exchange Net Position Change | Credit: Glassnode
However, the repeated spikes of 30-40 million WLD entering exchanges point to elevated distribution activity, especially after the recent bounce.
In the short term, this may cap upside momentum and increase volatility.
From a sentiment perspective, the chart leans cautiously bearish near-term because exchange inflows are generally not what holders want to see during a healthy breakout.
WLD Price Prediction: Not Here or There
On the daily chart, WLD remains stuck in a broader downtrend, despite the recent short-term bounce.
Notably, the price is still trading below the descending trendline that has restricted every recovery attempt since January.
At the same time, the 20-day EMA (blue) around $0.25 remains a critical level of resistance.
In addition, the recent reaction from the $0.22 support zone is important because that level has repeatedly defended against further downside.
However, bulls still need a breakout above both the EMA and descending resistance to shift momentum.
If that happens, WLD’s price could attempt a move toward $0.32, which aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci level and marks the next major resistance area.
Also, the MACD is beginning to flatten after a prolonged bearish phase, suggesting that momentum has weakened.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
