TRX price consolidates, but breakout seems unlikely
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Key Takeaways
TRX struggles to break out of a descending triangle after hitting $0.44 in December.
The IOMAP reveals that the altcoin could encounter a sell-wall as it gets close to $0.25.
If TRX’s price faces rejection, it might face correction below a key support level.
On Dec. 4, 2024, Tron’s (TRX) price hit an all-time high of $0.44. But the rally did not last as a bearish engulfing candle appeared on the same day, triggering a sharp drop to $0.33.
Since then, the altcoin has struggled to retest its former peak, with demand for TRX failing to match the surge witnessed during the final two months of last year. This lack of renewed buying pressure has left TRX stuck in a consolidation phase. What’s next for the cryptocurrency?
Between Dec. 5 and Jan. 14, TRX price fell from $0.34 to $0.22. The decline within this period led to the formation of a descending triangle.
A descending triangle is a pattern formed by two trendlines. The first is a descending upper trendline, formed by a series of lower highs, while the second is a flatter, horizontal trendline, representing the support level.
This pattern usually appears during a downtrend and suggests increasing selling pressure. When the price breaks below the horizontal support, it implies that the price decrease might continue.
However, if the price breaks above the upper trendline, it invalidates the bearish pattern. On the TRX/USD daily chart, the price hovers around $0.24, but continues to trade below the descending trendline.
This shows that the altcoin might experience an extended period of consolidation. However, if selling pressure rises, it risks falling below the support line at $0.22.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) position, as seen above, also aligns with this thesis. This is because the RSI reading is below the 50.00 neutral region, indicating that TRX price might fails to break above the bearish pattern.
From an on-chain perspective, the In/Out of Money Around Price (IOMAP) reveals TRX faces resistance at $0.25.
At this price level, 1.43 million Tron addresses accumulated over 800 million tokens. This is higher than the volume held in unrealized profits at each level between $0.20 and $0.24.
This suggests that a large number of TRX holders are likely to breakeven if the price hit $0.25. If this happens, it could act as a strong resistance zone, and could pull the cryptocurrency’s value back toward $0.20.
TRX In/Out of Money Around Price | Credit: IntoTheBlock
TRX Price Prediction: Downtrend Imminent
Meanwhile, the 4-hour chart shows that TRX price has risen above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) — in blue. It is also trading around the same point as the 50 EMA (yellow).
Typically, rising above the 20 EMA should be a sign that it is exiting its consolidating phase. However, the 50 EMA still remains above the 20 EMA, indicating that the cryptocurrency has yet to get to a clear path toward higher values.
Should this trend remain the same, then TRX could experience a decline that takes it below the $0. 20. On the other hand, if the 20 EMA crosses above the longer one, the anticipated price direction might change.
In that scenario, the token’s value could climb to the 0.786 Fibonacci level at $0.26 in the short-term. An increase in buying pressure could also extend this hike as TRX price could rally above $0.30.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
