Key Takeaways
TRON (TRX) made a triumphant return in 2024, hitting a new all-time high and reclaiming its spot among the top 10 largest cryptocurrencies.
However, the year ended on a sour note, with TRX plummeting 45% in the final two weeks and continuing its downward spiral into 2025.
Now, TRX is approaching a crucial support level that could define its trajectory—will this mark the end of its bullish cycle, or is it just a temporary setback?
On top of its impressive price action, TRON led the blockchain industry in revenue, edging out Ethereum with $2.19 billion compared to the latter’s $1.98 billion.
Rounding out the top five were Solana, dYdX, and BNB Chain, though there was a significant gap between TRON and Ethereum and the rest of the pack. In terms of revenue, TRON trailed only Tether, which posted $2.68 billion.
TRON also ranked highly in other key metrics, including active addresses and fees, consistently placing first or second. However, it lagged considerably in Total Value Locked (TVL), with just $7.2 billion compared to Ethereum’s dominant $72.5 billion.
TRX had been on a steady climb, trading within an ascending parallel channel since the beginning of the year. Throughout this period, it repeatedly tested both the support and resistance levels of the channel, reflecting a typically corrective movement.
In December, however, TRX broke out from the channel, signaling a potential shift to an impulsive trend. This breakout propelled the price to a new all-time high of $0.45, marking a significant milestone.
Despite the breakout, TRX has since plummeted by 45%, nearing a retest of the parallel channel, possibly reaffirming it as a support zone. While this sharp decline is notable, the overall trend remains bullish—provided TRX does not close back inside the channel.
On the downside, technical indicators are showing signs of weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped below 70, and the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is on the verge of a bearish crossover.
Although the weekly chart presents some bearish signals, the overall trend direction remains uncertain without further confirmation.
A closer look at the movement reveals that TRX is likely to face more downsides. This is because the price has broken down from an ascending support trend line containing the upward movement since November 2024, a sign that the upward trend may be over.
Supporting indicators like the RSI and MACD agree with this assessment since they have fallen into bearish territory at 50 and 0, respectively.
According to the daily time frame, the most likely movement is a continued decline to the next support at $0.20. This will represent a drop of 18% and take TRON’s price to retest the long-term channel.
TRX had an impressive 2024, but its outlook for 2025 is gloomier. The price has lost an important support level and is gradually approaching horizontal and diagonal support at $0.20. Whether the price bounces or breaks down once it gets there will be key in determining the future trend.