Key Takeaways
The TRX price has been one of the best performers since April, increasing over 40% in a time when the crypto market has corrected. While the upward movement led to a new yearly high of $0.17 on Aug. 25, the price has decreased since.
With TRX falling below $0.15, it raises the question of whether the upward trend has ended or if the decline is just a brief retracement before new highs.
In August, Tron had the second-highest Total Value Locked (TVL) , trailing only Ethereum and having nearly double that of Solana and BNB chain, which occupy the third and fourth spots, respectively.
Tron’s TVL is dominated by JustLend, a decentralized platform built on TRON that is similar to Aave on Ethereum. It is used for borrowing and lending assets, with users depositing in pools and receiving interest through the native token, jToken. JustLend has a mechanism similar to a liquid staking protocol, which allows users to stake TRX and receive up to 14.42% APY if they use that TRX for energy rental.
It is worth mentioning that even though JustLend accounts for over 70% of the TVL on Tron, its native token, JST, ranks only 154 in the market capitalization rankings. When JustLend launched in January 2022, Tron TVL was ranked eighth.
Even though in the total TVL numbers, Tron still trails Solana at $7.96 to $10.36 billion, Tron’s TVL has increased by 7.53% in August while Solana’s has fallen 2.53%.
Tron is also second in Stablecoin market ca p , trailing only Ethereum. Ethereum has 48% of the total Stablecoin market cap, Tron has 35%, while no other blockchain has more than 3%.
This performance was reflected in the price of TRX, which reached a new yearly high of $0.17 on Aug. 25.
The weekly TRX chart gives conflicting readings. The bullish price action shows a breakout from the $0.144 resistance area created in 2021. On Aug. 19-26, TRX reached the highest weekly close since the all-time high 2018 (white icon).
Even though the price of TRX has fallen, the decline resembles a retest of the $0.144 area after a breakout, which is a common movement.
However, the weekly RSI and MACD have generated bearish divergences (green). These often signify trend reversals when they occur in the weekly time frame.
So, there are mixed readings in the weekly time frame since the price action is bullish while indicators show weakness.
Finally, the 2-day wave count shows a potentially completed five-wave increase that started in November 2022. The count is distinguishable by the symmetrical triangle in wave four and the fact that wave five ended at exactly the 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of the previous decline.
The TRX price will likely begin a lengthy correction toward $0.110 if this count is accurate.
Conversely, a close above the yearly high of $0.17 will mean that wave five has extended. In that case, the next target will be at $0.207.
Even though Tron’s on-chain performance is impressive, its price action and indicator readings show considerable weakness.
When adding a potentially completed wave count to this scenario, the TRX price may have reached the end of its run.