Key Takeaways
The TRON (TRX) price has recovered admirably since the Aug. 5 bottom. While most cryptocurrencies trade under their yearly lows, TRX reached a new one on Aug. 25. This strength during market downturns was also present in this week’s correction, which the TRX price has already retraced.
Positive Tron news also hit last week after Messari published its quarterly report on Tron, which shows impressive growth.
Let’s analyze the TRX price action and see if it can maintain this increase and reach a new yearly high.
Last week, Messari published its quarterly report on the state of Tron in Q3. It was noted that Tron saw considerable revenue growth, reaching a high of $151.2 million in Q3, an increase of 29%.
Tron benefited from the interest in meme coins, and after launching Sunpump in August, its platform was designed specifically for meme coin trading. So far, more than 89,000 tokens have been created.
Activity on Sunpump specifically increased between Aug. 16 and 31, during which time $42 million worth of TRX was burned. This represents 27% of Tron’s revenue in Q3. The activity in Sunpump caused Decentralized Finance (DeFi) transactions to increase nearly 500% from the last quarter.
The highest daily total was on Aug. 21, with 34.7 million TRX burned.
However, most Sunpump metrics have fallen precipitously since August. For example, September revenue from SunPump was $959,460, but it is only $78,240 so far in October. So, it seems the increase was not sustainable.
Additionally, the number of new tokens created has fallen dramatically.
While over 7,500 tokens were created at its peak on Aug. 21, the number has fallen below 100 in each of the past seven days.
This starkly contrasts Solana’s platform Pump.fun , which has been breaking its previous all-time high nearly every day in the last two weeks.
The stablecoin usage in TRON is strong as usual, boosted further by several proposals lowering gas fees. The Tether (USDT) usage reached $58.94 billion, marking over half the total USDT in circulation.
Moreover, TRX became deflationary in Quarter 3, with a net burn of 587.6 million.
The only negative metric was the 9% drop in TRX staked, from 46.2 billion to 41.9 billion.
The weekly time frame TRX analysis gives mixed signs. The chart shows that TRX has steadily increased inside an ascending parallel channel since November 2022.
While such channels usually contain corrective movements, the TRX price trades in the channel’s upper portion, indicating a bullish trend.
Additionally, the price trades above the long-term horizontal level of $0.145, likely to act as support.
However, technical indicators show weakness. While both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are increasing, both have generated bearish divergences (green), a sign that the upward movement is nearing completion.
So, the weekly chart gives mixed readings. While it indicates that TRX is likely nearing the end of its long-term increase, it does not confirm if the upward movement has ended or if another short-term increase is likely.
The 2-day TRX chart suggests another upward movement is likely due to the positive wave count.
TRX started a five-wave increase (black) in Dec. 2022 and is currently in the fifth wave. The sub-wave count is white, showing that the price started the fifth and final sub-wave.
The most likely TRX price target is near $0.182. The target is found by the 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of sub-wave four (white) and by making the long-term waves one and five the same length (black).
A decline below the sub-wave on high (red) at $0.142 will invalidate this bullish TRX price prediction. If that happens, the TRX price can fall toward the closest support at $0.105.
The Messari report shows incredible growth for Tron during Q3.
The price analysis of multiple time frames indicates that TRX can soon begin its final upward movement to complete the long-term bullish trend starting in 2022.