THORChain (RUNE) is reclaiming a 93-day support trend line.
The wave count suggests it has started a bullish trend reversal.
Can RUNE reach a new yearly high and increase above $10?
The RUNE price has gradually increased since Aug. 5, culminating with a high of $6.32 on Oct. 29. However, it has fallen since and declined significantly on Nov. 4, falling to a 46-day low.
However, the price bounced immediately afterward and has recovered all of its previous losses.
Let’s analyze the price action and see why the crash happened and what lies ahead.
On Nov. 4, a Kraken user withdrew $1.85 million in RUNE and attempted to swap it for BTC using THORSwap. The large transaction caused concern, and the network temporarily blocked the transfer.
After Kraken confirmed it as legitimate, the block was lifted, and the user moved it to Binance in an attempt to sell. This likely caused panic and a considerable crash in the RUNE price, which fell to a low of $4.21 before recovering.
The same day, positive THORChain news hit once it was announced that the integration with Ledger was finally complete. A Discord post noted that v50, the biggest upgrade to THORChain, is ready to review and could launch in the next few days.
The aforementioned Nov. 4 RUNE crash (black circle) caused a breakdown below both these levels. However, the ensuing bounce confirmed it as a deviation since RUNE is closing above both the horizontal and diagonal levels, confirming them as support.
Despite the bullish price action, technical indicators do not yet confirm the bullish trend reversal. This is because the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 50 while the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is at 0, both signs of a neutral trend.
Bullish Future Trend
The long-term wave count is also bullish, aligning with the daily price action. According to the count, RUNE has started wave C in a long-term A-B-C structure (white). The sub-wave count is in black.
Giving waves A:C the same length and duration leads to a high of $13.27 in April 2025.
The sub-wave count suggests that RUNE has started sub-wave three, the sharpest out of the bullish ones. As a result, the RUNE price is likely to increase quickly, accelerating its upward movement once it closes above the $6.80 horizontal resistance area.
Falling below the wave B low of $2.54 will invalidate this count and lead to new lows, but this currently seems unlikely.
RUNE Price Targets $13
While the Nov. 4 RUNE price crash was worrisome, the strength shown afterward bodes well for the future trend.
The long-term wave count gives a target of $13.27 and suggests the upward movement will accelerate with a close above $6.80.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
