Key Takeaways
Theta Token (THETA) has been navigating a corrective phase following an extended five-wave rally. The recent price action suggests a potential bottoming pattern with a possible impulsive reversal.
The 4-hour chart provides insights into the broader market structure, while the 1-hour chart details the short-term wave count and potential price trajectory.
The 4-hour chart of THETA outlines a completed five-wave Elliott Wave impulse to a peak of approximately $3.36 on Dec. 7 before entering an ABC corrective phase.
The corrective move formed a descending channel, which aligns with a textbook retracement, ultimately finding support around $1.20 on Feb. 3.
After making a 33% recovery, we saw another retest of the $1.20 low, which could be an early sign of the price bottom.
Wave A and Wave B are structured within this broader correction, with Wave C potentially ending the corrective cycle on Feb. 3.
Fibonacci retracement levels highlight significant reaction points, with the 0.618 level at $1.90 acting as a critical resistance zone for a reversal confirmation.
Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour timeframe has rebounded from oversold conditions, suggesting selling exhaustion.
The declining channel breakout could be the first sign of a bullish shift. However, for confirmation, THETA must reclaim resistance at $1.51 (0.786 Fibonacci level), which previously acted as a supply zone.
If the price sustains above this level, it could initiate a new five-wave impulsive structure. Otherwise, a failure to hold $1.20 support could extend the correction toward $1.00 or lower.
The 1-hour chart presents a clearer Elliott Wave structure, indicating the potential start of a five-wave impulse.
The first minor wave (i) peaked at approximately $1.60, followed by a retracement to wave (ii) near $1.20, coinciding with a strong horizontal support zone.
Wave (iii) is anticipated to be the strongest, targeting the 0.618 Fibonacci extension at $1.90, which aligns with prior resistance.
A retracement in wave (iv) could revisit support near $1.70 before a final push in wave (v) toward the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $2.18.
However, failure to break above $1.50 could indicate a bearish continuation, leading to a retest of the $1.20 or even the psychological $1.00 level.
The RSI on the 1-hour timeframe suggests a potential bullish divergence, supporting the idea of a rebound. If the price clears resistance at $1.51, the bullish count remains intact, but a breakdown below $1.20 would invalidate this scenario.
Given the chart structure and key levels, the most likely outcome is a bullish breakout above $1.50, which would lead to further gains.
Confirming an impulsive wave structure would reinforce this outlook, with Fibonacci extensions guiding short-term targets.
This setup presents an opportunity for a potential reversal, provided THETA can confirm bullish momentum with a breakout above key resistance.