Theta Network’s THETA token has been in an uptrend from the October 19 low of $0.56, recovering by 83%. It reached $1 on November 9 and attempted to continue its upward trajectory, spiking to $1.18 on November 11, but the daily candle closed at $1 again, resulting in a retracement to $0.85 on November 22.
Since then, another attempt started with the price reaching $1 on the 25, again trying to surpass this resistance. This is its third time, so now we will see a harder rejection or, finally, a breakout with new highs ahead.
Which is more likely?
From its all-time high of $15.80 made on April 16, 2021, the price of THETA was in a bear cycle until reaching a low of $0.56 on October 19, 2023. The uptrend that started from there broke above its most significant descending resistance level, which was well respected in the past.
October 19 low correlates with the pre-bull market pump area, last seen in November 2020, and was the point of minor consolidation at the time. With the price depreciating by 97%, returning to its pre-bull market levels, and breaking out after, we could have seen a signal of the starting bull phase.
However, the rise from October 19 might have ended with the price now headed to its first corrective stage before it can continue moving to the upside more sustainably. The daily chart RSI indicates this, reaching 90% on November 7. The last time we saw these high levels was at an all-time high, so a reversal could be signaled.
Zooming into the 4-hour chart and examining the wave structure of the last uptrend, we can see that it displayed a five-wave pattern. This indicates that this uptrend ended on November 11, and what followed is the start of its corrective stage.
We’ve seen two sub-waves of this corrective stage develop, so now that it appears that the B wave has ended, another push to the downside is primarily expected. This would be the C wave out of the ABC correction, and its first price target would be at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at $0.80.
It could continue further down to 0.618 or 0.786, but the shallow nature of wave A doesn’t make this likely. Alternatively, the price could continue moving slightly, but its upside potential would be limited, as it did on November 11, leaving a larger wick.
If the October 19 low was its bottom, the price needs to establish further support before moving on to a new high. This is why in one way or another, this kind of a correction would be expected to develop and establish higher support.
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