Token unlock shakes SUI price — Will bearish pressure drag it under $3? | Credit: Derek Fenech
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Key Takeaways
SUI price dropped from $4 to $3.53 after today’s large token unlock.
The daily chart shows a drop below SUI’s ascending channel’s lower trendline.
The head-and-shoulders pattern is confirmed on the 4-hour chart, suggesting further downside.
Sui (SUI) price has shaken up short-term sentiment following today’s massive $162 million token unlock. On Monday, July 28, SUI’s price was trading above $4.
At press time, the market value had slipped to $3.53. While many may expect a prolonged correction, the next move might not be as straightforward as the bears would wish.
Here is what lies ahead for SUI in the short term.
SUI Price Breaches Key Line
According to the daily chart, SUI’s price has been trading in an ascending channel since July 3, consistently printing higher highs and lows. However, today, that structure faces a test.
The project has just released $162 million worth of new SUI tokens into circulation as part of its scheduled token unlock event. Token unlocks can significantly impact price dynamics.
The circulating supply increases when a large tranche of previously locked tokens enters the market. If demand doesn’t rise to absorb this new supply, the influx can create downward pressure as recipients can choose to sell some of their holdings.
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In SUI’s case, the token unlock pressure has affected the price. At press time, the daily chart shows that SUI has dropped below the lower trendline of the ascending channel, a key support level.
We observed that bears played a role in this decline. For instance, the Bull Bear Power (BBP) has finally dropped to the negative region on the daily chart. This indicates that selling pressure has outpaced the buying volume.
If sustained, SUI’s price could decline below the next underlying support at $3.07, especially if it fails to break the $3.93 resistance.
Looking at the short-term outlook, SUI’s price has formed a head-and-shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart.
The pattern features a higher central peak (the head) flanked by two lower highs (the shoulders), with the neckline as critical support. A decisive break below this neckline, especially on substantial volume, could trigger a measured move to the downside.
As seen below, SUI’s price has dropped below the neckline at $3.75. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) has fallen below the zero line, indicating rising bearish momentum.
Since this setup comes immediately after a $162 million token unlock, sellers may still have the upper hand. Should this remain the case, the altcoin might fall below $3.
However, if buyers manage to defend the neckline and force a rebound, the bearish scenario could be invalidated. If that is the case, SUI might jump to $4.44.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
