Key Takeaways
The late-summer chill has caught up with Stellar (XLM). Over the past 30 days, XLM’s price has fallen by 10% as August winds down.
While some altcoins might rebound from that point, XLM does not seem likely to end the month on a high note. Here is why.
On the 4-hour chart, XLM’s price trades within a descending channel, reflecting sustained downward pressure.
Within this setup, the Bull Bear Power (BBP) has slipped into negative territory, signaling that sellers currently have the upper hand and weakening the chances of an immediate recovery.
Despite the bearish setup, the Money Flow Index (MFI) has climbed above the 50 midpoint. However, this rise reflects increasing selling pressure instead of signaling strength, suggesting that more capital is flowing out of XLM than coming in.
If this trend holds, it could limit any recovery attempts and keep the token under downward pressure. Should this trend remain the same, XLM’s price risk drops below the support at $0.38.
By the look of things, XLM’s market value could fail to surge past resistance. If that were to happen, the altcoin could also drop below the $0.32 underlying support

However, on the positive side, Stellar seems to grow fundamentally, especially in the stablecoin market.
“According to a Goldman Sachs, the report, the stablecoin market could reach trillions, with payments as the largest growth opportunity. Stellar is already scaling that market, with 4.2B+ in RWA payments and TVL climbing almost 200% from Q1 to date ($50M → $144M),” It disclosed.
From a short-term perspective, the daily chart confirms that XLM’s price is moving within a falling channel. At the same time, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has slipped below the zero line, signaling capital outflows and weakening demand for the token.
These signals suggest that selling pressure remains dominant, making it difficult for XLM to launch a meaningful rebound soon.
If this remains the same, XLM could drop to $0.30. If the market enters a bear cycle, the altcoin might decline to $0.22.
On the contrary, the bearish setup could overturn if buying pressure strengthens. In that case, XLM may break above the upper trendline of its descending triangle, signaling a potential shift in momentum.

Such a breakout could see Stellar climb toward $0.43, while a highly bullish scenario might even drive the market as high as $0.64.