Key Takeaways
The SPX6900 (SPX) price journey has been marked by rapid gains and strong resistance, with technical indicators suggesting either a continued uptrend or an imminent correction.
As SPX approaches a significant resistance level, the direction of its next move remains pivotal.
SPX began trading around $0.10 on Sept. 30 and gradually gained momentum, reaching a high of $0.330 by Oct. 3 before falling back to $0.20.
After consolidating sideways until Oct. 6, SPX began its first strong uptrend, reaching a high of $0.718 on Oct. 9, rising by 244% from its Oct. 6 low.
This movement formed an ascending channel, retesting its resistance level today. However, the uptrend appears choppy without a distinct wave structure.
As the momentum slowed, the price fell to $0.46 before spiking to its all-time high of $1.20 on Oct. 10. Despite the short-lived spike causing an immediate reversal, one more advancement was seen, leading the price decisively back slightly below $1, where it faced resistance.
The buyers have been gradually increasing the pressure, causing a slight uptrend. Still, the sellers have maintained the same selling price of $1, forming the ascending flat triangle.
Yesterday, a new advancement started bringing SPX to the lower level of the resistance zone but at a slightly higher price than on Oct. 21. Will it continue past it and make a new all-time high, or is another rejection ahead?
A closer look at SPX’s wave structure and Fibonacci levels reveals a five-wave pattern to its all-time high, suggesting that the first uptrend might be over.
That would mean SPX is now in its corrective stage, and its two sub-waves have already developed.
According to this count, the last rise would be its B wave, which shouldn’t exceed the all-time high.
Instead, an immediate rejection should follow, leading to a downtrend in the development of the C wave.
Projecting its length with the Fib extension tool like the A wave, we reach a target of $0.51. However, there is an alternative count.
The ascending flat triangle could be wave 4 from the five-wave impulse, with the price currently developing its final uptrend.
In that case, SPX could continue past the $1 resistance and make a new all-time high, but the upside room would remain limited.
The interaction result will indicate which scenario is more likely because the price is now at the significant resistance level.