Key Takeaways
The price of Injective Protocol (INJ) started gaining traction on Aug. 5, when it was low and broke above its descending triangle in mid-March.
This is a bullish sign, but its recent price movements still do not confirm the starting bull phase.
On March 14, INJ reached an all-time high of nearly $54, concluding a five-wave impulse that began in January 2023. This rally was followed by a steep drop, creating a descending triangle pattern.
An ABCDE correction pattern formed inside this triangle, hitting a low of $13.60 on Aug. 5.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell into oversold territory at 26%, suggesting a potential shift toward an uptrend.
Since then, INJ rebounded to $24 on Oct. 1 after a breakout from the descending resistance. Considering that the price had declined since March, this could have been the first sign of a coming bull phase.
It formed an ascending triangle, reaching a lower high of $22.50 before dropping to ascending support and is currently trading around $20.
The hourly chart suggests that INJ may have developed a five-wave pattern from the Aug. 5 low to the ascending triangle, potentially forming a leading diagonal.
The latest high was a brief spike, complicating the wave count as it could be unaccounted for. This makes the ABC correction labeling more likely.
Its recent downtrend brought the price back to the ascending support, and from its interaction, we will see which scenario is more likely. However, we expect to see a breakout to the downside.
In the bullish scenario, we saw a five-wave pattern ending on Oct. 17 spike to $25, and its subsequent decline is a correction before further upside.
In that case, the price of INJ shouldn’t go below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of $17.70. If it holds, the next upward move will lead to sustained growth past $30.
If the recent spike is overlooked as an anomaly, we can say that INJ made a lower high of $23 on Oct. 17 and is now moving further to the downside as the third sub-wave of the next downtrend is in development.
According to the bearish count, the ascending triangle is a corrective structure that is still part of INJ’s long-lasting correction.
Finally, the downtrend continuation began on Oct. 1 and could potentially bring the price to $10 on its next lower low.