Key Takeaways
Solana’s (SOL) price has recently exhibited dynamic activity across multiple time frames, providing compelling insights into its next potential moves.
The daily and hourly charts highlight significant support was met, previously established in December.
Despite the stabilization, we haven’t seen any significant signs of a reversal, which doesn’t mean it won’t come.
The daily chart shows SOL in the middle of a descending channel that has persisted since the recent local top near $264.
Following a rejection at $223 (slightly below 0.236 Fib), SOL retraced to $176.47 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement) on Jan 13.
This level aligns with the channel’s lower boundary, forming a critical support zone.
The price quickly increased above $183, previously seen at the Wave W ending point, suggesting that support exists in this area.
Despite the level holding, we haven’t seen any decisive upward movement, implying that SOL is still in a downtrend.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicates a neutral stance, with no clear overbought or oversold signals.
The larger wave structure suggests the completion of Wave W and X and the ongoing development of Wave Y within a W-X-Y corrective pattern. Wave X has broken above the channel, but this fakeout led to its current downturn.
Key horizontal resistance at $193.20 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement) poses a significant hurdle for buyers. Failure to reclaim this level could lead to continuing the downward trajectory, with deeper support at $152.65 (0.786 Fibonacci retracement).
The confluence of Fibonacci levels and the descending channel suggests indecision in SOL’s larger trend. A decisive break above $193.20 could confirm the beginning of a new bullish impulse, while failure to hold above $173.42 signals further downside.
On the lower time frame, SOL appears to have completed a local Wave (i) within a developing five-wave structure.
The bounce from $173.42 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the prior impulse) suggests a potential upward movement targeting $193 (0.5 Fib).
A sustained move above $193 is required to confirm the initiation of Wave (iii). If Wave (iii) unfolds as expected, the price could target higher Fibonacci extensions, with $223.88 (0.236 extensions of the entire corrective structure) and $230.64 as notable targets.
But first, a minor pullback for its Wave (ii) would be anticipated, whose depth will validate or invalidate this bullish projection.
On the bearish side, rejection at $193.20 could lead to a retest of $176.47. A break below this level invalidates the bullish scenario and confirms the continuation of the corrective structure, with targets near $152.65 (0.786 Fibonacci level) and potentially as low as $136.63.