Key Takeaways
Following a strong rally late last year, SOL has slipped back below the midpoint of its range and is showing signs of weakness.
Technical indicators are flashing bearish signals across multiple timeframes, suggesting more downside ahead.
With fading momentum, could Solana be heading for a deeper crash in the coming months?
Solana has traded within a well-defined range of $120 to $250 since its 2021 cycle high of $260.
In December 2024, SOL briefly broke above this range, reaching a new all-time high of $295.83.
However, the rally failed to hold, and the price retraced to the lower boundary of the established range.
The upward trend that began in April (green icon) culminated in a lower high near $250 resistance by September (red icon).
Following this rejection, SOL has continued its bearish trajectory, recently falling below the midpoint of its range at $180.
Historical precedent in similar structures suggests this breakdown often precedes a further decline.
For Solana, a continuation of the current pattern could result in a 25% drop, targeting the range low near $120.

Momentum indicators support this bearish prediction for Solana. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has broken its support trend line and is now below 50.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) made a bearish cross and is very close to falling into negative territory, confirming the bearish SOL prediction.
As a result, SOL is likely to keep plunging for the remainder of the year, at least until it reaches the range low.
The six-hour price action indicates that the Solana price is trading within an ascending parallel channel, a sign of a corrective movement.
Therefore, the bounce since Nov. 4 likely marks a correction, rather than a bullish trend reversal to new highs.
Moreover, Solana has deviated (red icon) above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement resistance level of $169, which is also a horizontal resistance area.

Solana broke down from the channel today, so the price could begin a descent that eventually takes it to the range low of $120.
Finally, the long-term wave count suggests that Solana will keep going down the rest of the year and well into 2026.
Solana has completed a five-wave upward movement (green) since the start of 2023 and is now in wave C of an A-B-C correction (red).
The breakdown from the channel confirms that wave B ended and wave C is underway.

If waves A and C have a 1:1.61 ratio, SOL could fall to $59-$69, also reaching the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement support level.
The Solana price is currently breaking down from the middle of its long-term range.
Once Solana breaks down from its short-term ascending parallel channel, it could crash to the range low of $120.