Key Takeaways
Solana’s (SOL) price movement recently has sparked interest. It broke above its descending resistance on July 20, suggesting a possible bullish trend.
After falling back to the $120 support and forming a descending triangle, the higher low on Sept. 16 indicated a potential uptrend, although resistance at $160 remains unbroken.
This analysis explores two scenarios for SOL’s next move, focusing on whether it breaks above key resistance or falls back to test lower support levels.
SOL broke above its descending resistance on July 20, indicating a potential bullish trend, provided it could hold above this key level.
However, the failure to maintain support suggested that the corrective structure from mid-March was still active, pushing SOL back to its horizontal support at around $120 on Aug. 5.
A descending flat triangle formed as selling pressure increased, but buyers maintained support. On Sept. 6, this support area was retested, leading to a price bounce and contributing to SOL’s recent rally.
The higher low on Sept. 16 suggests the start of an uptrend, though the Sept. 27 peak at $160 failed to surpass the significant horizontal resistance zone.
The price decreased 12%, falling to $143, where it currently trades. Given the price movement, there are two possibilities.
Either another breakout attempt failed, and SOL is reversing to $120 support, or we saw the first five-wave impulse, and the current downfall is its corrective phase.
The hourly chart shows two potential scenarios: whether the WXYXZ correction ended on the Sept. 6 low or whether it rose from that low. The key lies in interpreting the rise from Sept. 6.
In the first scenario, SOL began a new uptrend, which could result in a stronger upward movement and a breakout above the horizontal resistance.
If SOL breaks above $160, which aligns with the 2 Fibonacci extension, it would confirm a five-wave impulse and solidify the uptrend.
SOL’s rise could be corrective in the second scenario, with resistance holding below $160. Recent rejection could lead to a drop below the $120 support, potentially reaching a new low of $105.
But if it holds above $140, there could still be a chance that this decline was a corrective wave four before a final wave five confirms the uptrend.
This is why the $140 area serves as a pivot point between scenarios, and since the price is now at those levels, we will soon see which one is in play.