POL Breaks 6-Month Downtrend With 22% Surge and First Golden Cross Signal

Key Takeaways

• POL has been up 22% in the past week, a sharp short-term rebound that contrasts with its 53% YTD decline.
• A golden cross has appeared on the POL/USD daily chart for the first time since November 2024.
• The last golden cross preceded a 112% price surge, so POL’s price may soon climb higher.
• The Address Birth-Death Ratio hits its highest level in over a month, supporting the price recovery.

Polygon’s native token, POL — formerly MATIC — has dodged another downturn after hitting a record low on April 7.  Over the past seven days, the Polygo ecosystem, toke has rebounded impressively, posting a 22% increase.

Still, zooming out paints a grimmer picture. On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, POL is down 53%, making it one of the weaker performers among the top cryptos.

This mix of short-term strength and long-term weakness raises the question: Will POL’s price continue to climb, or is this rally just a fakeout?

POL Channel Break Confirmed

From a technical perspective, the POL price seems ready to extend its recent rebound. A key indicator backing this bullish outlook is the formation of a golden cross on the daily chart — the first occurrence since November 2024.

A golden cross occurs when the short-term Exponential Moving Average (EMA) rises above the longer one. This indicates that momentum is in favor of buyers.

In this context, CCN looks at the 9 EMA (blue) and 20 EMA (yellow), which mostly focus on the short-term price action. As shown below, POL’s price previously traded within a descending channel.

However, after the recent increase, the token broke out of the upper trendline of the bearish pattern. Amid this rise, the 9 EMA also crossed above the 20 EMA, marking the first golden cross in six months.

This happened around Nov. 7, 2024, when the POL price was $0.34.

One month later, the altcoin’s value has soared by 112% and hit $0.71. Therefore, if history repeats and bullish momentum holds, POL will likely follow a similar trend and trade higher.

However, this does not guarantee the cryptocurrency’s exact performance during that time.

Adoption Accelerates

Beyond the golden cross, on-chain data provides another bullish signal for the Polygon token. According to IntoTheBlock, the Address Birth-Death Ratio has surged to its highest point in over a month.

This ratio tracks the number of new active addresses (births) relative to inactive or dormant ones (deaths), offering insight into network activity and user adoption.

The latest spike suggests that more participants enter the Polygon ecosystem, buy tokens, and interact with the network.

This uptick in on-chain engagement correlates with rising demand and positive market sentiment. If adoption continues at this pace, the POL price could hit higher values, potentially erasing more losses.

POL Price Analysis: Not Overbought Yet

In support of the above signs, the Supertrend on the POL/USD daily chart has flashed a bullish signal. The signal came after the indicator’s green line appeared below POL’s price for the first time since last December.

The Money Flow Index (MFI) reading has also risen to 73.24. The MFI  shows whether capital is flowing in or out of a cryptocurrency.
It is also used to spot overbought or oversold levels and divergences.

In this case, the increase in the MFI rating indicates rising buying pressure. However, it also shows that POL has not been overbought, as the reading has not yet exceeded 80.

Should this trend continue, POL’s price could climb to $0.28 at the 0.786 Fibonacci level. If buying pressure intensifies, this target could be higher as the cryptocurrency could reach $0.39 later.

However, this forecast might be invalidated if the longer EMA crosses above the shorter one.

The MFI reading might drop in that scenario, indicating selling pressure, while POL’s market value could slide to $0.15.