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Peter Brandt Expects $150,000 Bitcoin By September 2025 — But Wave Analysis Shows $130,000 is More Likely

Last Updated June 4, 2024 3:19 PM
Nikola Lazic
Last Updated June 4, 2024 3:19 PM

Key Takeaways

  • Peter Brandt predicts Bitcoin could hit $150,000 by September 2025.
  • Halving events historically mark the mid-point of Bitcoin price cycles.
  • Last halving, Bitcoin reached an all-time high for the first time, skewing the expectations.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt predicts that Bitcoin could reach a high of $150,000 before the end of the current bull market. If Bitcoin continues its historical pattern, the ongoing bull market will conclude around August or September 2025. 

Brandt’s View 

In a recent blog post , he notes that the duration of Bitcoin bull cycles has remained consistent since 2012, typically extending from post-crash lows to halving dates and from halving dates to bull market peaks.

According to Brantd, the duration from the beginning of each bull market cycle (marked by a low after a decline of more than 75%) to the Halving dates closely matches the period from the Halving dates to the subsequent peaks of the bull markets, as illustrated in the accompanying chart.

BTC to $150,000 by September 2025
BTCUSD | Credit: Peter Brandt

He suggests that bull market peaks can be charted using an inverted parabolic curve, and his analysis indicates Bitcoin may soar as high as $150,000 by the end of this cycle.

However, Brandt cautions that his forecast is not guaranteed. He mentions a 25% chance that Bitcoin may have already reached its peak for this cycle.

He further explains that if Bitcoin fails to establish a new all-time high and drops below $55,000, it might enter a phase of exponential decay, losing about 80% of its momentum post-bull market.

This Halving Is Different 

Bitcoin‘s halving events have historically marked significant periods in its price cycles. The first halving occurred after Bitcoin’s initial bear market ended at $2 in November 2011. This halving launched a bull cycle that lasted 903 days, from a high of nearly $30 in June 2011 to a new high of $1,160 in December 2013. The halving happened 539 days after the cycle’s beginning.

BTC
Bitcoin Halvings | Credit: Nikola Lazic

During the week of the first halving, Bitcoin‘s price rose from around $10 to nearly $14, adhering to a flat ascending triangle pattern formed months earlier. Despite a subsequent period of sideways movement, it took 90 days for Bitcoin to return to its $30 peak.

The second halving occurred 951 days into the next cycle, with Bitcoin taking 1477 days total from one peak of $1,160 to another at $20,000 in December 2017. Before and after the halving, Bitcoin underwent a descending sideways pattern but recovered strongly post-halving.

The third halving occurred 876 days after a peak of $20,000, leading into another sideways movement period before reaching nearly $70,000. Twelve days before the halving, Bitcoin traded at around $10,000 but settled into a narrower range shortly afterward.

Interestingly, the most recent halving deviated from previous patterns as Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of nearly $74,000 before the event. This is a first in Bitcoin’s history. Current patterns indicate a continuation of sideways movement, typical of previous halvings, with the direction of the breakout still uncertain. This phase is crucial as it may determine the direction of the next significant price trend.

Could BTC Hit $130,000 By September This Year? 

Since hitting a high of nearly $74,000, Bitcoin has been in a downward trend within a descending channel. Recently, on May 17, it briefly broke out of this channel but has since fallen back below $70,000 after retesting its resistance.

BTC
BTCUSD | Credit: Nikola Lazic

One potential scenario is that the uptrend beginning on May 1 could herald a significant rally, possibly leading to a new all-time high. In this case, Bitcoin would need to break above the descending channel’s resistance and use it as support, entering the fourth wave of a five-wave pattern. Once this wave is complete, Bitcoin could surpass the $78,000 level.

On the other hand, if Bitcoin reenters the descending channel, it might suggest a bearish trend. The rise from May 1 could be seen as a three-wave corrective pattern, part of a larger wave four correction segmented into WXY waves. The peak on Tuesday might represent the end of wave X, with a potential decline towards $55,200 on the horizon.

Either way, March’s decline is counted as its wave four correction, and after it is completed, we could expect to see its final advancement from the uptrend that started in November 2022.

Projecting a target with the Fibonacci extension tool for its ending wave to come shorter than its wave 3, at 0.786, we come up with a target of around $130,000. However, if its wave 5 is the same length or even higher in momentum, Bitcoin’s value could exceed $150,000 by year-end. 

Conclusion

In conclusion, since this time, Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high around the halving, so the comparison with the previous could be skewed. This makes Peter Brandt’s expectations conservative, and we could see these values before the end of 2024 instead of September 2025. There is an alternative scenario in which Bitcoin could end its bull cycle this year and enter a prolonged correction that can last for at least six months, closely related to Brandt’s warnings. However, even in that case, its following rally wouldn’t surpass its previous all-time high by the end of 2025.

Disclaimer
Please note that the contents of this article are not financial or investing advice. The information provided in this article is the author’s opinion only and should not be considered as offering trading or investing recommendations. We do not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability and accuracy of this information. The cryptocurrency market suffers from high volatility and occasional arbitrary movements. Any investor, trader, or regular crypto users should research multiple viewpoints and be familiar with all local regulations before committing to an investment.
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