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Bitcoin Price Increases 10% in May – Here’s Why June Could Bring Even More BTC Returns

Last Updated June 3, 2024 9:51 AM
Valdrin Tahiri
Last Updated June 3, 2024 9:51 AM

Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin’s price created a bullish candlestick in May, increasing over 10%.
  • The Bitcoin price started June on a positive note, increasing over 2% in its first weekend.
  • Will the bullish trend persist through the month, leading to a new all-time high?

Bitcoin has corrected since its all-time high of $73,777 in March. While it risked breaking down from its long-term support, the price regained its footing in March and is now only 7% below its all-time high.

The Bitcoin price today is in the process of breaking out from a short-term symmetrical triangle pattern. If successful, will this increase trigger the upward movement toward an all-time high, and where will that be?

Bitcoin’s Bullish Close in May

The Bitcoin price created a bearish engulfing candlestick in April, shortly after reaching a new all-time high of $73,777 in March. The decrease was a sign of a potential market top.

BTC  started the next month with a drop, briefly falling below the $60,000 support area, which was the previous all-time high resistance. However, it regained its footing and close the month bullishly, increasing by over 10% relative to the price on May 1.

While the increase validated the $60,000 area as support (green icon), it did not create a bullish engulfing candlestick, since the price did not close above the Aprils’ opening price at $71,280. However, the close above April’s midline of $66,000 is a positive sign.

Bitcoin's May Price
BTC/USDT Monthly Chart | Credit: TradingView

Technical indicators show some similarities to the local top of March 2021, which was a temporary high before the actually all-time high of September. More specifically, the price of Bitcoin moved outside of the limits of the upper Bollinger Bands, a sign of extreme deviation. Then, it fell back inside it before beginning another upward movement.

In the 2021 increase, the RSI generated a bearish divergence on the next high, something that could also happen in the current movement.

Bitcoin Monthly Price Movement
BTC/USD Monthly Chart | Credit: TradingView

Another interesting observation is that such a bounce never happened in the previous market cycle tops. Rather, every single top with the exception of 2013 was followed by successive monthly bearish candlestick. Even in 2013, the BTC price created a small bullish candlestick before resuming its downtrend.

The MVRV Z-score, which shows over and undervaluation, gives a similar prediction. In the previous market cycle, the MVRV Z-Score topped well above 6, and it is currently at 2.4. In the previous cycle, it was the increase above 2.4 (red) that triggered the rapid portion of the upward movement toward a new all-time high.

Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score
BTC MVRV Z-Score | Source: Santiment

So, a comparison of the movement following the March 2024 all-time high to the previous market cycle tops implies that the BTC price has not reached its top in the current cycle.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: What Will Happen in June?

The weekly time frame wave count supports the findings from the price action and indicators. The count suggests that the Bitcoin price is in wave three of a five-wave increase (yellow), which started in November 2022. Wave three extended and the sub-wave count is in white.

A likely target for the top is at $91,000, which will give wave three 2.61 times the length of wave one.

Long-Term Wave Count
BTC/USD Weekly Chart | Credit: TradingView

The short-term movement is also in alignment. Firstly, the breakout from the descending parallel channel existing since the all-time high implies the correction is over. Then, the minor sub-wave count (black), shows the price is in the final portion of the increase.

From the short-term time frames, the target is between $84,200 and $87,200. The 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of wave four (black) gives the lower portion of the target. The upper portion is found by giving wave five 0.618 times the length of waves one and three (white).

Short-Term BTC Increase
Bitcoin/USD Six-Hour Chart | Credit: TradingView

The price of Bitcoin is attempting to break out from a short-term symmetrical triangle (dashed). Doing so will confirm this count and trigger the beginning of the fifth minor sub-wave.

Despite this bullish Bitcoin price prediction, falling above the wave one high at $65,513 will invalidate the count (red line). This is because Elliott Wave rules state that wave four cannot go in the territory of wave one.

Bitcoin Price to Reach New All-Time High in June

The Bitcoin price saved a breakdown in May and validated the previous all-time high region as support. Although it did not create a bullish engulfing candlestick, it nearly regained all of its losses from the April decrease.

The price action, indicator readings and wave count all suggest another upward movement is likely. A target for the top is between $84,000 and $91,000. A significant correction can follow afterward.

Disclaimer
Please note that the contents of this article are not financial or investing advice. The information provided in this article is the author’s opinion only and should not be considered as offering trading or investing recommendations. We do not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability and accuracy of this information. The cryptocurrency market suffers from high volatility and occasional arbitrary movements. Any investor, trader, or regular crypto users should research multiple viewpoints and be familiar with all local regulations before committing to an investment.
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