Key Takeaways
Memecoins have been one of the best performing crypto categories in 2024. So far, Ethereum memecoins have been led by PEPE, while FLOKI is playing catch-up in second place. Older memecoins such as SHIB and DOGE have underperformed relative to their newer counterparts.
PEPE’s increase culminated with a new all-time high on May 13. Since FLOKI mirrors its movement and broke out from its corrective pattern, speculation mounts that a similar increase will happen, leading to a new FLOKI price all-time high.
PEPE has increased since April 13, when it bounced at the support trend line of a descending parallel channel. After breaking out from the channel on April 23, PEPE confirmed the correction is over. Then, it validated the channel support on May 1 (green icon), before accelerating its increase.
At the same time, the RSI broke out from its resistance trend line (green), confirming the correction is over. PEPE reached a new all-time high of $0.0000119 on May 13.
According to the wave count, PEPE is in the fifth and final wave of an upward movement (white) that started in September 2023. The sub-wave count is in black, showing an extended wave five.
If the PEPE coin increase continues, the most likely target for the top is between $0.0000150 and $0.0000184. The 1.61 external Fib retracement (black) creates the lower portion of this range. The upper portion is found by giving wave five the same length as waves one and three. Since wave five extended, this is a common ratio.
Contrarily, falling below the most recent low (red) at $0.0000076 will mean the upward trend is over. Since the upward movement started in September 2023, a pronounced correction will likely happen once the move is done.
On May 13, the FLOKI team announced the possibility of burning over $15 billion tokens. While the number is significant, it is very small in proportion to the total FLOKI supply of 9.5 trillion. If the burn goes through, it will reduce the supply by only 0.1%.
Previously, FLOKI burned 190 billion tokens on March 9. While this had a positive effect on the price, leading to a new yearly high five days later, the price has corrected since and now trades nearly 20% below the price on March 9. So, it seems unlikely that the 15 billion burn will have any effect on the price.
Nevertheless, the price action for FLOKI is positive, sharing numerous similarities with that of PEPE. The FLOKI coin price has increased since bouncing at the descending parallel channel’s support trend line on April 13.
It broke out from the channel on May 4, and validated it as support on May 13 (green icon). At the same time, the RSI increased above 50 (green circle).
So, if the price follows the same pattern, it will soon accelerate its increase and reach a new all-time high. The first target for the top of the move is at $0.000438. The 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of wave four (black) creates this target.
Despite this bullish FLOKI price prediction, falling back inside the channel can lead to a deeper retracement.
In our previous analysis, we determined that PEPE is likely to be the first memecoin to reach new highs, with FLOKI to follow. As outlined before, PEPE has already done so, and FLOKI could do the same. In addition to this SHIB and DOGE have been lagging behind the whole year. The trend has continued in the current recovery.
PEPE (orange) has been the biggest gainer in the past 30 days at 93%, followed by BONK (purple) and FLOKI (white) at 50 and 35%. So, in the Ethereum ecosystem, PEPE is leading while FLOKI is following. In the Solana ecosystem, BONK is leading while WIF is following.
The two older Ethereum memecoins SHIB and DOGE are left behind. While SHIB has increased nearly 3%, DOGE has fallen 6%. The data from this year gives not reason as to why this pattern will not continue.
PEPE and FLOKI have both recovered admirably in the past 30 days, posting rates of increase over 30%. While their movements are similar, PEPE is further ahead in its upward movement compared to FLOKI. PEPE reached a new all-time high price on May 13. In any case, if FLOKI continues to mirror the PEPE movement, it will soon break its own all-time high.