Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) Holds Key Support as Uptrend Momentum Shows Signs of Fading

Key Takeaways

• PENGU formed a rounded base breakout pattern.
• RSI divergence suggests short-term exhaustion.
• ABC correction toward $0.0094 is likely.

PENGU has transitioned from a prolonged downtrend into an emerging bullish reversal, forming a textbook cup-shaped bottom pattern.

A completed five-wave structure appears to be approaching exhaustion as price divergence and reduced momentum signal a pending correction.

With price now near significant Fibonacci resistance, caution is warranted in the short term despite strong structural progress.

PENGU Price Analysis

The 4-hour chart displays a clear bottoming formation that spans several months, forming a rounded base (cup) after a steep decline from the $0.046 high.

Price action stabilized around the $0.0032–$0.0050 accumulation zone and eventually initiated a new impulsive wave count starting mid-April.

Waves 1 through 5 appear to have played out, with the current peak just below $0.015.

This level aligns closely with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement of the entire bearish leg and acts as support/resistance in the short term.

The rounded base breakout confirms the end of the macro downtrend, but overextension signs are emerging.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) divergence develops as the price increases, while the RSI has begun trending downward since reaching overbought.

This is an early warning of weakening bullish momentum.

From a macro perspective, PENGU has established a foundational bottom and broken structure to the upside.

Yet, a healthy retracement toward $0.0094 or even $0.0080 would strengthen the long-term outlook before another leg up can occur.

We saw a gradual decrease since its recent high near $0.017, but the 0.236 Fib level offers support.

This raises questions about whether the price ended its five-wave pattern or has one more high ahead.

PENGU Price Prediction

On the 1-hour chart, PENGU is completing the final stages of wave (v) within a higher-degree fifth wave, showing multiple sub-waves with clean impulsive structure.

Wave (iv) was relatively shallow and brief, suggesting limited room left for further extension in wave (v).

The immediate scenario projects a final push toward the $0.026 resistance area, which aligns with the upper Fibonacci level of 0.382.

However, strong RSI divergence is already present on the lower timeframe, further indicating that momentum is fading.

A probable path is a completed five-wave structure, followed by a corrective ABC pattern, but confirmation is awaited.

If the price goes below the $0.0136 support (0.236 Fib) the likelihood of the coming ABC correction will be higher.

However, if the price starts to recover and surpasses its prior high, an advancement toward the $0.020 region will be more likely.

In both cases, PENGU is expected to end its uptrend soon, and the ABC correction should follow as the handle counterpart of the cup and handle formation visible on the higher time frame.

Wave (a) may retrace back toward the $0.0136 support (0.236 Fib), with a minor bounce in wave (b), followed by a wave (c) drop to the $0.0094 region.

The projected correction would likely unfold over the next 1–2 weeks and could present a significant accumulation opportunity if wave c concludes cleanly.

If PENGU holds above $0.0094, the bullish structure remains intact.

However, failure to defend this level would open downside toward $0.0080 or lower.

Overall, the macro structure remains bullish and the expected ABC correction should lead to a sustained increase moving forward.

Key Levels to Watch

• Resistance Zone: $0.015–$0.016 (wave v top).
• First Support: $0.0136 (0.236 retracement).
• Major Support: $0.0094 (wave iv and 200 EMA).
• Deeper Risk Level: $0.0080 (cup base region).
• Long-Term Target: $0.0199–$0.0250 (0.382–0.5 Fib retracement).