Key Takeaways
The ONDO price has had an incredible rise in 2024, increasing by 4,000%. The Total Value Locked (TVL) also reflects this by reaching a new all-time high.
The ONDO rally has become parabolic since May 15, creating some concern as to whether it is sustainable in the long run. However, there are no short-term signs of weakness in place. So, this leads to the question: How long will the increase continue, and what is a potential level for an ONDO top?
Data from Artemis shows that the RWA sector has been the best performing one in the past month, resulting in an increase of 62%. RWA refers to protocols that deal with the tokenization of tangible assets which are then brought on-chain.
A reason for the increased interest results from DeFi protocols that generate yield by investing user assets. One such platform is stUSDT, the first RWA platform in the TRON blockchain. Its 4.18% APY reportedly comes from government bonds.
Other interesting protocols in the space are Maple Finance (MPL) and Centrifuge (CFG), the latter of which also incorporates Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) in its mechanism. However, by far the biggest gainer from this sector is ONDO, which is also the biggest project based on the market capitalizations.
Ondo Finance lets stablecoin holders earn interest by swapping their coins for USD, which is used to buy assets and mint fund tokens that reflect these investments, offering 4.5% to 7.76% APY. Their new USDY token, backed by short-term US Treasuries and bank deposits, provides a secure way to earn yield.
The ONDO price reached a new all-time high of $1.48 on June 3 and is currently making an attempt at increasing further.
The Total Value Locked (TVL) for Ondo Finance has increased steadily since February 2023. The increase accelerated in March 2024 and culminated with a new all-time high of $500 million in June 2024.
57% of the TVL is in USDY while 43% in OUSG. While both are backed by U.S treasuries , OUSG has a fixed return pegged to BlackRock’s short-term Treasuries ETF, while USDY has a variable rate set by Ondo Finance.
An interesting observation is that the RWA sector’s TVL is nearly 50% below its all-time high of $6.3 billion. This is likely because of the massive decrease in TVL for stUSDT . The protocol currently has a TVL of $530 million, well below the all-time high of $2.2 billion.
A potential reason for this decline could be the revelation that a significant portion of the supply is linked to accounts controlled by Tron’s founder, Justin Sun.
The Ondo Finance token price has increased alongside an ascending support trend line since February 2024. More recently, it bounced at the trend line on May 15 (green icon) and accelerated its rate of increase.
The increase also coincided with a breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern. So, it is likely the beginning of the fifth and final wave of the upward movement. Since then, ONDO has increased nearly 90%, culminating with a new all-time high price of $1.48 on June 3.
Even though the increase is completely parabolic, neither the RSI nor MACD show any signs of weakness. To the contrary, both are increasing. Furthermore, there is no bearish divergence in place, neither in the short- nor long-term.
Because of this lack of weakness, it is possible that wave five has extended. If this is true, it can have the same length as waves one and three combined, culminating with a high of $1.77.
The ONDO price has likely started the fifth and final wave of its increase on May 15. Wave five seems to have extended. Since there is no short-term weakness developing, it is possible wave five will have the same length as waves one and three combined. If this is the case, the price can increase by another 30% and reach $1.78 before a major correction.