Oasis Price Rally Takes it Above $0.10 But ROSE Still Far From its Yearly High
ROSE Price Faces Tough Path to Yearly High | Credit: Getty Images
Key Takeaways
- The ROSE price has increased since the start of April and closed above $0.10 last week.
- ROSE has validated and trades above a long-term horizontal support area at $0.08.
- Is this the beginning of a new upward movement, or is it simply a relief rally?
Despite a short-term crypto market correction, the ROSE price increased by 13% yesterday on June 9. Now, it attempts to break out from its short-term corrective pattern.
While the upward movement since the start of April is substantial, the ROSE price has not confirmed its bullish trend reversal yet, since it still trades below several long-term horizontal and Fibonacci resistances.
The main dilemma for June is: Will the Oasis price break out, or will the resistances reject it instead, leading to new lows?
ROSE Bounces After Confirming Support
The weekly time frame price chart for ROSE shows a decline since the yearly high of $0.185 in March. The decrease led to a low of $0.072 in April, which triggered the ongoing bounce.
ROSE’s increase is important since it validated both the $0.080 horizontal support area and the resistance trend line of an ascending parallel channel. So, it confirms the previous breakout is valid and the long-term trend is likely bullish.
The $0.080 area had provided resistance for 476 days before the price finally broke out in December 2023.
ROSE has created successive large bullish candlestick in the weekly time frame. However, the RSI casts some doubt as to whether the increase is a relief rally or the beginning of a new upward trend. This is because the bearish divergence trend line in the RSI (green) is still intact, despite the indicator moving above 50.
As a result, looking at a lower time frame can help determine if the trend is bullish or bearish.
ROSE Price Prediction: Relief Rally or Bullish Trend Reversal?
The daily time frame chart shows that the upward movement was preceded by a bullish divergence in the RSI and MACD. Such divergences often lead to bullish trend reversals, as was the case for ROSE.
Moreover, the ROSE price broke out from a descending resistance trend line existing since the yearly high, another sign the correction is over.
What casts doubt on the validity of the upward movement is the fact that ROSE has not broken out from its ascending parallel channel (white) yet. The channel has existed since April and is a sign the upward movement is corrective.
Furthermore, there is a critical Fibonacci and horizontal resistance level at $0.129, just above the channel’s midline. So, the trend cannot be considered bullish until ROSE breaks out.
The wave count implies the upward movement is a relief rally rather than the beginning of a new bullish trend. This is because ROSE has completed a five-wave increase (white) starting in 2023. Then, it started an A-B-C corrective structure (black).
If the count is accurate, the ROSE price is completing the B wave. The corrective wave can end at either the confluence of resistances at $0.129 or move higher toward the 0.618 Fibonacci and horizontal resistance at $0.142 – $0.148.
Then, another decline can complete wave C.
Despite this long-term bearish price prediction, a daily close above $0.148 will mean the price has started a new upward movement instead. If this is the case, a new yearly high is likely soon.
ROSE’s Increase Could be a Relief Rally
Despite a substantial increase since April, the ROSE price is likely mired in a relief rally. If this is the case, the price can reach a local top at either $0.129 or $0.142 – $0.148. Then, another decline to new lows will happen. This bearish long-term prediction will be invalid with a daily close above $0.148.
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