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Ethereum ETF Decision Day: How ETH Price Behaved Differently to Bitcoin Before Its ETF Debut

Last Updated May 23, 2024 8:07 AM
Valdrin Tahiri
Last Updated May 23, 2024 8:07 AM
By Valdrin Tahiri
Verified by Peter Henn

Key Takeaways

  • The deadline for approving the VanEck Ethereum ETF application is on May 23.
  • The Ethereum price movement before the ETF has differed from Bitcoin’s.
  • If the decision is positive, will it be enough to propel the ETH price to a new all-time high?

The Ethereum price saw its largest daily increase in nearly three years on May 21, spurred by optimism surrounding the US approval of an Ethereum ETF. The final deadline for approval is today, on May 23.

With this in mind, it is worth looking at the ETH price movement leading up to the ETF and compare it to that of Bitcoin, to see if any similarities arise.

What’s Going on With the Ethereum ETF?

The odds of an approval of the Ethereum ETF were dwindling in the past few months. This all changed on May 20, when the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) asked exchanges to update their filings, causing the chances of approval to increase to 75% by Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart.

The final deadline for the VanEck ETF is on May 23, while the ARK 21 Shares ETF deadline is the next day. There is growing optimism that the ETF will be approved, since five applicants, Fidelity, VanEck, Invesco/Galaxy, Ark/21Shares, and Franklin Templeton submitted their amended applications.

While some applicants such as Grayscale have removed staking language from the filings, Standard Chartered has its chances for an approval  of the Ethereum ETF at between 80 and 90%.

With the first deadline being today (May 23), it is worth looking at the BTC price movement close to its ETF approval on January 10 and comparing it to Ethereum’s.

How did Bitcoin React Around Approval?

The BTC price increased in the 121-days before the approval of its ETF on January 10 (green). Interestingly, the BTC price topped the next day. Then, it started a 17% correction that continued for 12 days.

After the correction was over, BTC started another upward movement that continued for 51 days, leading to the all-time high of $73,777 on March 14. This was a 90% increase.

Bitcoin ETF Price Movement
BTC/USDT Daily Chart | Credit: TradingView

So, the anticipation regarding the Bitcoin ETF approval caused a rally, but the actual approval was a sell-the-news event. Then, the long-term effect is also positive, as noted by the ensuing increase that led to a new all-time high price and the positive ETF inflows.

Ethereum Price Action Heading to the ETF

The Ethereum price increased by 170% in 151-days between October 2023 and March 2024. Then, the price corrected for 50 days, decreasing slightly over 30%. The price started an upward movement on May 1, increasing 35% over 21 days.

Ethereum Price ETF Movement
ETH/USD Daily Chart | Credit: TradingView

So, the ETH price movement leading up to the ETF has differed from that of Bitcoin. While ETH has increased, corrected and then began another upward movement before the ETF, BTC increased before, fell after and the resumed its increase after the ETF approval.

Ethereum Price Prediction: Is an All-Time High Reachable?

The wave count from the daily time frame Ethereum price chart implies a new all-time high is likely. The count suggests the ETH price is in wave three (white) of a five-wave upward movement, which has extended. The sub-wave count is in black.

If the count plays out, a potential target for the top of the entire increase is between $4,700 and $4,860. The 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement (black) creates the upper limit of this target. The lower limit is found by sub-wave five 0.618 times the length of sub-waves one and three combined.

Ethereum All-Time High
ETH/USDT 2-Day Chart | Credit: TradingView

As a result, the wave count predicts the ETH price will reach new highs soon and possibly go to a new all-time high. Then, a significant correction could ensue, corresponding to the upward movement ongoing since November 2022.

Ethereum Could Reach New All-Time High

The Ethereum price movement leading up to its ETF deadline has been dissimilar to Bitcoin’s. Nevertheless, ETH is likely to resume its increase and could even reach a new all-time high. This prediction is made on the assumption that the Ethereum ETF will get approved. The opposite could cause a negative ETH reaction.

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