The Block Subsidy Model helps price an asset by comparing its value to the cost of production, also known as the thermocap. The model uses the thermocap and its multiples to show if the asset is more valuable than its production cost and by how much.
The high for Ethereum’s first cycle was at the 64 multiple of the Thermocap (red), while the second cycle high was at the 32 multiple (purple).
This shows a trend of diminishing returns during each cycle, which has been common in the cryptocurrency market.
While not certain, this could mean that this cycle’s high will be reached at the 16 multiple (yellow).
Currently, the Ethereum market cap trades between the 8 and 16 multiples. historically, the most rapid portion of the upward movement began once the Ethereum price broke out above the 8 multiple.
Therefore, the reading of Ethereum’s Block Subsidy Model suggests that the price has further room to grow. Assuming a constant supply, we can convert the market cap values from the thermocap multiple to an ETH price.
The 8 multiple is at $5,716, the 16x multiple is at $11,433, and the 64x multiple is at $22,875.
The Mayer Multiple Model uses a 200-day moving average (MA) and creates upper and lower bands to determine if the asset’s price is overbought or oversold.
In previous market cycles, highs (black circles) were reached above the 2.4 multiplier of the 200-day MA (red).
In the current cycle, ETH has fallen below the 0.8 MA multiplier (green) twice in June 2022 and September 2024 (green circles).
This is similar to how it acted in the previous cycle when it fell below the multiplier for the second time in March 2020 before beginning the parabolic portion of its upward movement.
The 2.4 multiplier is at $7,200. If it follows previous history, ETH will reach a new all-time high above this level.
Ethereum’s price crossed the MA twice in both previous cycles before eventually reaching the top.
Ethereum’s Rally Begins
The Mayer Multiple and Block Subsidy models suggest that Ethereum has room to grow. Additionally, their readings mimic the previous cycle before Ethereum’s rally became parabolic.
The combination of these two models suggests the likely area for a top is between $7,200 and $11,433.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
