Key Takeaways
Ethena (ENA) has initiated a bounce from major support after completing a prolonged WXYXZ correction.
Price action shows the first signs of a trend reversal, supported by bullish divergence.
The market is now eyeing a reclaim of higher Fibonacci levels, contingent on short-term wave structure resolution and breakout confirmation.
The 4-hour chart shows ENA completing a multi-month WXYXZ corrective structure, bottoming out at $0.257, which aligns with key horizontal support.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a strong bullish divergence around this low and has since surged above 50, indicating a momentum shift.
The broader structure highlights a double bottom formation, followed by a currently seen 18% spike from the oversold zone.
The final leg (Z wave) found support above the 1.0 Fibonacci extension level from the previous high.
This confluence of support levels, combined with a sharp recovery and breakout above the descending wedge, signals a potential trend reversal.
Now trading at around $0.30, ENA faces initial resistance at $0.369 and stronger resistance at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level ($0.443).
Reclaiming this zone would shift back toward bullish market structure, setting the stage for a potential retest of higher Fib levels toward $0.63 and $0.76.
If the current bullish momentum is sustained, the broader picture suggests the beginning of a new impulsive phase.
However, confirmation requires a decisive break above the $0.369–$0.443 cluster.
Until then, consolidation between $0.26 and $0.36 remains likely, with downside risk capped by the recent low at $0.257.
On the 1-hour chart, ENA unfolds a clear five-wave impulse from the May 7 low, confirming a potential reversal.
The price is currently in wave (iii) of this impulse, with short-term projections targeting a local high around $0.31 before retracing in wave (iv) toward the $0.29–$0.30 region.
This structure suggests a typical Elliott Wave setup, where wave (v) completion could take ENA near the $0.32–$0.34 area.
A corrective (a)-(b)-(c) pullback is then expected, likely revisiting the $0.28–$0.29 zone, which will be the first higher low.
This retracement will be crucial in determining the sustainability of the rally.
If the correction holds above $0.27, the setup allows for a larger bullish breakout above $0.36, aiming toward the $0.443 level, the 0.786 retracement of the previous major decline.
This level aligns with strong historical confluence and would serve as a validation point for a macro trend shift.
However, if ENA fails to hold above $0.27 during the upcoming correction, it could re-enter the former consolidation range and test support at $0.257.
Short-term traders should watch for volume confirmation and RSI behavior near overbought territory as wave (v) completes.