Key Takeaways
Ethereum’s price currently sits at a key support level of around $2,450, with the outcome of this interaction set to dictate its future outlook.
Holding this level could pave the way for a bullish breakout, while a break below may indicate a continuation of the downtrend.
This crucial juncture will likely shape Ethereum’s next major price movement.
Ethereum’s bullish momentum started in June 2022, rebounding from under $1,000 to $2,000 by August.
A significantly higher low at $1,180 in November marked the beginning of a five-wave pattern that lifted ETH to just above $4,000 by mid-March 2024—a 265% increase.
After reaching this high, ETH entered a bearish phase, dropping 48% to $2,150 by Sept. 6, likely completing the fourth corrective wave of this five-wave cycle. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) now suggests this low may have ended the correction, indicating that the fifth and final wave may be underway, potentially propelling ETH back to or beyond its all-time high of $4,800.
Since Aug. 5, ETH has been consolidating around a critical horizontal level, forming a symmetrical triangle—a typically bullish pattern.
This suggests a possible rally ahead. On November 4, it again tests its ascending support at $2,450.
Despite the bullish outlook, the breakout direction will provide further insight into the following primary trend.
The hourly chart shows that ETH bounced off the ascending $2,327 support, forming a higher low on Oct. 10 than earlier.
However, the price remained below its prior high on Oct. 20 and 30, indicating further consolidation.
Currently trading around $2,450, ETH is ascending support, which could be the final retest before it starts moving to the upside. A new bullish phase will be confirmed if it breaks the descending resistance at $2,620.
The wave structure indicates that the triangle may represent an ABCDE correction, setting ETH up for this anticipated breakout.
However, today’s ascending support interaction could also lead to a breakout below it, invalidating our assumption. This symmetrical triangle would be interpreted as a consolidative pattern before the major downtrend continuation.
If the price does find support at the current ascending trendline and starts increasing past its resistance, the first target for this rally is $3,500.
ETH’s sustained upward momentum could mark just the initial sub-wave of a prolonged bull cycle, potentially leading to a new all-time high.
On the other hand, a breakout below can trigger another round of selling, leading to lower values than in August.