Key Takeaways
Dogecoin’s price action is approaching a critical point as it retests its two-year diagonal support level.
After months of steady gains since October 2023, DOGE is finally at risk of breaking down.
A sharp dip below support, followed by a recovery, has raised questions about whether the bullish structure can withstand further pressure.
Dogecoin’s price has increased steadily alongside an ascending support trend line since October 2023.
DOGE has increased steadily alongside this support trend line, bouncing five times so far.
However, the final bounce was not the same as the previous one.
The Dogecoin price crashed well below the trend line (green icon) before bouncing and creating a long lower wick.
Even though Dogecoin technically prevented the breakdown, the price movement still raises bearish concerns.
The two main reasons are that such a significant decline below support is not typically a deviation, and that the deterioration ended once the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement resistance was rejected by the DOGE price (red icon).
Hence, it is possible that Dogecoin’s long-term bullish trend has ended, and a breakdown from the trend line would confirm this.

Momentum indicators back this reading. After multiple months of consolidation, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 50, and the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) has made a bearish cross.
As a result, Dogecoin’s price analysis is bearish, and an eventual breakdown is the most likely future movement.
The short-term count corroborates the bearish trend in Dogecoin’s price movement.
The most likely count shows a completed five-wave downward movement (red) since December 2024.
In this context, the entire bounce that began in April is part of a relief rally in response to the decline.

Since the rally ended in September, the Dogecoin price has resumed its bearish movement, dropping to new lows.
There is one alternative bullish count. In it, Dogecoin has completed a five-wave upward movement (green) contained inside an ascending wedge.
The wedge is part of a leading diagonal, so the ensuing decline is simply a correction that ended at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement support level.

However, this count is less likely because it does not fit with the long-term movement. Additionally, it would mean that the Dogecoin price has two more bullish waves left, taking it well into 2026.
As a result, the most likely Dogecoin price prediction remains bearish, and a breakdown from the trendline is expected.
Dogecoin’s bounce is insufficient to erase the broader bearish signals forming on the charts.
Momentum indicators and repeated rejections at key resistance levels suggest that selling pressure is mounting.
While a bullish alternative exists, it appears less likely given the long-term structure.
If Dogecoin breaks down from its two-year support level, it could quickly plunge to new lows.