Dogecoin’s September breakout above long-term resistance was short-lived.
After a sharp 20% decline, the token now risks slipping below its ascending wedge pattern, which could undermine confidence in the rally’s strength.
But the charts suggest a different narrative. Technical counts indicate the current slump may be nothing more than a short-term correction, setting the stage for another push higher.
Here’s a closer look at why Dogecoin is under pressure, and whether its recovery can regain steam before the month is over.
The weekly time frame DOGE chart shows that the price has increased alongside an ascending support trend line since October 2023.
It has bounced at the trend line several times, most recently in June 2025 (green icons).
While the Dogecoin price has created several higher highs and higher lows, it is unclear if it is impulsive.
In August, DOGE reached a high of $0.306 but failed to sustain it.
The ensuing decline confirms the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement resistance at $0.307 as the main level to break if the upward trend is likely to continue.

Even though the Dogecoin price has failed to break out, momentum indicators show promising signs.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 50, and the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is positive.
The weekly time frame gives conflicting signs, failing to confirm if the long-term trend’s direction is bullish or bearish.
Unlike the weekly chart, the daily one is decisively bearish for several reasons.
Firstly, the DOGE price trades inside an ascending wedge, which is considered a bearish pattern.
Dogecoin has completed a five-wave upward movement (green) inside this wedge, confirming the leading diagonal.

The symmetrical triangle in wave four confirms that this is the correct count.
When combined with the bearish RSI and MACD (black circles), which have just fallen below their bullish thresholds at 50 and 0, respectively, this means that the DOGE trend is bearish in the short term.
If a breakdown from the wedge happens, the DOGE price could find support between the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci retracement support levels at $0.197 – $0.218.
While the short-term wave count is bearish, the long-term one is still bullish.
According to the count, Dogecoin’s price has completed a five-wave upward movement (green) beginning in June 2022.
If the count is accurate, the ongoing increase is another similar five-wave rally (green), which will take Dogecoin to a new cycle high.

The proposed breakdown from the wedge could be wave two in the next five-wave upward movement.
Once it is over, the Dogecoin price will likely begin another rally and could potentially reach $1.
Dogecoin’s short-term structure looks weak, with the ascending wedge signaling bearish momentum and indicators confirming downward pressure.
However, the long-term Elliott Wave count still favors a bullish continuation, suggesting the correction may only be temporary.
If DOGE holds the current Fibonacci support, another strong rally could emerge, potentially setting the stage for a push toward $1 in the next major cycle.