Bitcoin Miners Accumulate — On-Chain BTC Indicator Predicts New Highs

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin’s NUPL has crossed above 0.50 into the “belief” stage.
• Miner indicators are turning bullish and showing accumulation.
• Is Bitcoin’s market cycle over, or will the price reach another high?

Bitcoin’s price has rallied by 50% since April 7, culminating in a new all-time high on May 22. The upward movement has been devoid of any severe pullbacks.

The BTC price retraced each short-term decline, leading to new highs less than a week after the drop.

While on-chain Bitcoin indicators turned bearish at the start of the year, they have reversed due to the all-time high.

This article will analyze several on-chain indicators to gauge the market’s health and determine when the cycle will end.

What does the NUPL Say?

NUPL is an on-chain metric that shows whether the market is in a state of profit or loss. To calculate it, the relative unrealized profits are divided by the relative unrealized losses.

A negative value means the market is at a loss, while the opposite is true for a positive value.

In a more straightforward explanation, the indicator shows if Bitcoin’s circulating supply is at a profit or loss.

Historically, Bitcoin market cycle tops have happened when the indicator crossed 0.75. Another sign of the beginning of the bear market is two crosses above 50 (green), followed by a breakdown below (yellow).

In the current cycle, the NUPL did not reach 0.75. However, it broke down below 0.5 for the second time (black circle) in April, indicating the bear market had started.

Nevertheless, the recent increase in the Bitcoin price caused the NUPL to surge again, taking it to 0.56, invalidating the bearish signal.

If NUPL follows previous history, it will exceed 0.75 before the market tops.

Miner Indicators Turning Bullish

Hash Ribbon directly compares mining costs and rewards. The indicator shows miner capitulation when costs are higher than rewards.

The hash rate’s short—and long-term moving averages (MA) create the indicator. The chart shows periods of unprofitability in red when the short-term MA exceeds the long-term one.

Historically, this on-chain signal has always led to a Bitcoin recovery, with the sole exception being July 2022 (black circle). The indicator shows the first stages of miner capitulation, giving a bullish signal.

The indicator also flashed red in February and March 2025. After BTC broke down in April, it seemed this would be a false signal, but the ensuing upward movement validated it.

Thus, the BTC price may correct in the short term before moving to new highs. However, if the indicator maintains its accuracy, new highs are likely.

Miners have also started accumulating. The Miner Net Position Change indicator shows a period of accumulation in May.

In the current Bitcoin market cycle, Miners generally stopped accumulating at the end of 2023, except for August 2024 (black circle), right before the BTC price began a parabolic upward movement to an all-time high.

Thus, the ongoing accumulation period is a positive sign that bodes well for the future since miners have been relatively accurate in predicting the BTC movement, primarily selling during upward movements and buying before the price rallied.

Cycle Not Over

The NUPL gave a bearish signal in April, raising concern that the market cycle is over.

However, the ongoing Bitcoin price increase squashed the fears and invalidated the bearish signal.

Bitcoin’s on-chain indicators are also bullish while miners accumulate, a positive sign for the future trend.