Bitcoin Halving 12 Days Away: How did BTC Price React in 2 Weeks Prior to Each Halving?
Bitcoin 12 days before the halving. What can past one tell us?
Key Takeaways
- Historical patterns hint at pre-halving price dynamics.
- Bitcoin often forms sideways patterns around halvings.
- Previous halvings led to varied post-event market behavior.
Bitcoin has a built-in mechanism known as “halving,” where the coin emission rate is cut in half approximately every four years. This event is highly anticipated by investors and traders alike due to its significant impact on Bitcoin’s supply and price.
With the next halving event, April 20, just 12 days away, there is mounting interest in understanding how the price of Bitcoin has historically reacted in the two weeks leading up to each halving.
This post aims to dissect the historical price movements of Bitcoin before its halving events. By examining the data from previous halvings, we will explore patterns, anomalies, and the broader implications these movements may have on the cryptocurrency market.
Whether you’re a seasoned trader or a curious newcomer, understanding the potential price dynamics leading up to a halving can provide valuable insights into the complex interplay of supply and demand in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Bitcoin Halving Dates
The timeline of Bitcoin halving events showcases a systematic reduction in the mining reward:
- The inaugural halving occurred on November 28, 2012, when the reward for mining a block of Bitcoin was halved from 50 BTC to 25 BTC.
- The second halving took place on July 9, 2016, further reducing the mining reward from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC.
- The third halving event happened on May 11, 2020, cutting the reward from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC.
- The most recent, or fourth, halving is scheduled for April 19, 2024, when the reward will be halved again from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
Previous Halvings Price Action
The first ever Bitcoin halving occurred after the first Bitcoin bear market ended at $2 in November 2021. This second bull cycle, from its first all-time high of nearly $30 in June 2021, lasted 903 days until it reached $1,160 in December 2013. The first Bitcoin halving was made 88 days after its midpoint, or 539 days since the first all-time high.
In the 12 preceding days, BTC was traded at around $10 and was moving up to almost $14. This was a continuation of the ascending flat triangle pattern that formed in August 2012 and lasted until January 2013 – 40 days after the first halving, keeping BTC price in a sideways range around $13. Worth noting is that this was 140% off from its previous all-time high, needing 90 days to regain those values of $30.
From its second all-time high of $1,160 to its third, Bitcoin needed 1477 days, out of which the second halving occurred on day 951, leaving 178 days to climb back to $1,160 and 524 to make a new all-time high of $20,000 in December 2017.
Like in the case of its first halving, BTC was in a larger sideways pattern, but this time went through it in a descending manner. It peaked at $780 on June 16, followed by a decline to $553 on June 23. The next day, it quickly recovered above $650 and moved around this area until July 29, 2016. After it made a lower low of $487 on August 2, we saw the continuation of the bull market.
Bitcoin’s third halving took place 876 days after its preceding all-time high of $20,000. Of 1424 days, BTC had 545 days to reach the next one, nearly $70,000. Around the third halving, Bitcoin’s price was yet again in a sideways range, forming a symmetrical triangle.
Although 12 days before, it was on an upward trajectory, reaching $10,000, this was short-lived. The price settled below and was traded in a 10% range with a median point of $9,300 through the halving. Only after 68 days, when this consolidation ended, we saw the continuation of the bull market with a breakout from this structure.
Fourth BTC Halving And What’s Different?
We saw from comparing Bitcoin’s price around the previous halving events that Bitcoin never made a new all-time high before and immediately after the halving. Second, it usually occurs around 60%-70% of the cycle from the previous all-time high to the new one. And lastly, Bitcoin always formed a sideways range around the halving, although its form varied.
The first thing that stands out about the current halving is that BTC made a new all-time high before it. On March 14, we saw a peak of nearly $74,000, although only 5.5% more, still a new all-time high. This has never happened before in Bitcoin’s price history.
However, as with its previous halving, BTC consolidates in a symmetrical triangle. Following the logic of its previous halvings, we could see further sideways movement through this one. The breakout direction remains unclear, as in the case of symmetrical triangles. Since the pressure is equal from both sides, either one could win this tug of war.
This is why the first indication of the next lasting trend would be the breakout direction, and with Bitcoin still being traded around its previous all-time high territory, the likelihood of a descending move is high.
Disclaimers
Please note that the contents of this article are not financial or investing advice. The information provided in this article is the author’s opinion only and should not be considered as offering trading or investing recommendations. We do not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability and accuracy of this information. The cryptocurrency market suffers from high volatility and occasional arbitrary movements. Any investor, trader, or regular crypto users should research multiple viewpoints and be familiar with all local regulations before committing to an investment.
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