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Bitcoin Price Rejected At $71,400 For Third Time – BTC Downturn To Follow?

Last Updated April 1, 2024 1:16 PM
Nikola Lazic
Last Updated April 1, 2024 1:16 PM
By Nikola Lazic
Verified by Peter Henn

Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin struggles to break resistance, hinting at potential downturn.
  • Withdrawals exceed deposits, suggesting long-term holding trend.
  • Volatility remains high, indicating market indecision and possible shifts.

On March 26, the price of Bitcoin reached a high of $71,200, making a 14% recovery. However, since then, Bitcoin has struggled to overcome the resistance BTC encountered several times. Today, April 1, we saw another attempt, with the price coming to $71,400 before falling by 3.37%. 

This lengthy sideways movement could suggest BTC isn’t strong enough to continue on its upward trajectory and should now drop. With Bitcoin halving scheduled for April 20, what can we expect next for Bitcoin’s price? 

Bitcoin (BTC) On-Chain Data 

Looking at the Exchange Netflow on CryptoQuant , we can see there is still more Bitcoin withdrawn from exchanges than deposited. This usually suggests that investors are keeping the cryptocurrency into their private wallet, holding it for a longer period.

Negative Netflow

On, April 1, there were 17,659 Bitcoins withdrawn then deposited, similar to what we saw last week, yet the price remained stable. 

Bitcoin on-chain data

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) is still sitting very high. On March 4, it reached a peak value of 0.64 and has been hovering around 0.6 since then. This means there are more investors in profit and that profit-taking hasn’t taken place. 

Glassnode Chart

Last week, Bitcoin experienced a surge in its 30-day annualized realized volatility, reaching a peak of 63.76%, according to Glassnode data .

By the end of the week, it sustained a level above 60%, marking its highest point since August 2022. Realized volatility measures the fluctuation in returns from the average over a specified timeframe. Higher figures indicate a greater risk of price changes during that period.

This indicates that the market participants are indecisive, hinting at the looming volatility ahead. Unfortunately, it doesn’t provide many clues as to where the price could go next.  

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis 

On March 13, 2024, Bitcoin’s price reached a peak of $73,800. Since February 26, it had been tracing an ascending triangle pattern. This hinted at a possible halt in its upward trend, potentially culminating in either an ending diagonal or a rising wedge, which typically precede a downward shift.

1-hour chart.

Bitcoin took a downturn, dropping below its ascending support line to hit a low of $60,600 by March 20, reflecting an 18% decrease. However, it quickly recovered, climbing slightly above $71,000 the previous day and showing signs of further gains by March 26.

This recovery followed a corrective pattern and reached the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, part of an ABC correction sequence. Overcoming the current resistance could reverse this pattern, but a strong resistance might signal a more significant drop ahead.

As we saw the formation of a sideways range, its breakout direction will dictate the future outlook. If we see a breakout to the upside above $71,400, it would mean that the price formed a five-wave pattern from its March 20 low, which is a trending pattern. If that happens, we could expect a new all-time high. 

However, if our count is correct and we saw a corrective ABC from March 20, a breakout to the downside would be more likely. In this scenario, BTC could be headed for a significant trend shift and fall below $60,000 soon, with more downside potential. 

Disclaimers

Please note that the contents of this article are not financial or investing advice. The information provided in this article is the author’s opinion only and should not be considered as offering trading or investing recommendations. We do not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability and accuracy of this information. The cryptocurrency market suffers from high volatility and occasional arbitrary movements. Any investor, trader, or regular crypto users should research multiple viewpoints and be familiar with all local regulations before committing to an investment.

 

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