Bitcoin (BTC) May Have Ended Its Downtrend as Breakout Confirmation Looms

Key Takeaways

• A falling wedge breakout will confirm that wave (4) may be complete.
• RSI supports upside potential in daily and hourly timeframes.
• A rising wedge may signal near-term wave v top.

Bitcoin appears to be concluding a corrective wave (4) and transitioning into wave (5) of a macro impulsive structure.

The higher time frame suggests a bullish continuation pattern, while the lower time frame supports a developing motive wave, possibly wave (iii) within a new short-term impulse.

As the price approaches descending resistance, a successful breakout above will confirm the start of a new bullish trend.

BTC Price Analysis

BTC’s daily chart indicates that wave (4) likely bottomed at $75,000, slightly above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of wave (3).

The correction unfolded within a falling wedge—typically a bullish reversal pattern—suggesting a pivot toward wave (5) to the upside.

Notably, the breakout attempt will occur just below the 200-day EMA, now acting as dynamic resistance, and aligning with the descending wedge resistance. 

This confluence further strengthens the reversal case, as the price needs momentum for a successful breakout. 

Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart bounced from the neutral zone (~40), showing momentum recovery while remaining well below overbought levels.

This supports the idea that Bitcoin may have more room to grow before entering exhaustion.

If wave (5) has started, our first target will be the 0.382 Fib at $86,634. If the projection turns out to be valid, wave 5 should bring the price of BTC to a new all-time high.

BTC Price Prediction 

On the 1-hour chart, Bitcoin has completed a clean corrective pattern (ABC inside wave Z) and has since formed an impulsive advance labeled as waves i and ii, with wave iii now in progress.

The structure appears to unfold within a rising wedge, introducing short-term caution, especially as BTC approaches the descending resistance trendline from the higher time frame.

However, wave (iii) surpassed wave (i) with notable strength, indicating bullish momentum remains dominant.

The RSI shows higher highs and lows, reinforcing the rally’s strength. 

But with RSI nearing 70, a temporary pullback or completion of wave iii could be near, possibly around $84,000—just under the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $86,634.

Upon wave v completion, a brief correction (wave ii or (2)) could follow before further bullish continuation.

The key will be holding support above $80,000 to confirm a shift in market structure from corrective to impulsive.

Key Levels to Watch

• Major Support: $80,086 (0.5 Fib), $73,539 (0.618 Fib).
• Immediate Resistance: $86,634 (0.382 Fib)
• Breakout Confirmation: Above descending trendline and $86,000.
• Invalidation: Below $73,000, reopens downside risk.
• Wave 5 Target Zone: $94,736 to $107,831.