Key Takeaways
Berachain (BERA) fell to an all-time low on May 6, but since then, it has made a 22% bounce, sparking bullish momentum from oversold conditions.
Price action is now testing the upper boundary of a descending channel, hinting at a potential breakout.
We analyzed the broader structure and short-term wave development to gauge the likelihood of continuation versus rejection.
On the 4-hour chart, Berachain formed a falling wedge pattern, which traditionally signals a bullish reversal upon breakout.
The asset bottomed at $2.70, slightly below the 1.618 Fib extension of the previous decline, confirming support at this level.
Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) marked a substantial bullish divergence, breaking above 50 for the first time in weeks, suggesting renewed momentum.
The previous corrective structure, labeled WXY, appears to have completed, with Wave Y terminating on the May 6 low.
The confluence of trendline support and Fib level helped trigger this bounce.
The price is now approaching $3.30–$3.40 below the wedge resistance.
A clean breakout above this diagonal could lead to $4.25 (1.272 Fib) targets and $5.20 (macro resistance and previous support zone flip).
From a macro perspective, the full return to $8.70 remains plausible only upon reclaiming the $5.20–$5.95 range (prior breakdown region).
Until then, BERA will likely face resistance around $4.25 and consolidate further.
With strong bullish signals from structure and RSI, momentum now favors the bulls, but confirmation above $3.60 is key for follow-through.
The 1-hour chart reveals an impulsive five-wave structure initiating from the $2.70 low.
The current price near $3.29 appears to be completing sub-wave (iii), with (iv) retracement likely targeting the $3.10–$3.15 area before a final push toward $3.50–$3.60 completes wave (v).
The structure is impulsive, supporting the idea that a short-term uptrend is underway.
Once the five-wave impulse concludes, a three-wave corrective move labeled as (a)-(b)-(c) is expected.
This may return the price to the $3.00–$3.05 level, near the 1.618 Fib again, now acting as strong structural support.
If this correction is shallow and holds above $3.00, it could confirm bullish continuation with an extended move toward $5.20, aligning with the macro wedge breakout projection.
Alternatively, failure to hold above $3.00 would invalidate the bullish count and likely resume the larger downtrend toward $2.40.
However, given the impulsive nature of the current rise and momentum on the RSI, the bullish case holds more weight now.
A confirmed breakout above $3.60 sets the larger bullish scenario toward $4.25 and $5.20.