Avalanche (AVAX) Price Gains 15% but Encounters Resistance — Breakout May Be Next

Key Takeaways

• AVAX tests key support at $24 amid recovery signals.
• A breakout above $40 could confirm bullish momentum.
• A decline below $24 would favor a bearish outlook.

Following a peak at $65 in March, the Avalanche (AVAX) price retraced to $30 and entered a consolidation phase.

After a brief breakout to $41, AVAX resumed its decline, hitting recent lows near $24, and now shows early signs of recovery with a 15% gain, raising questions about the potential start of a new uptrend.

AVAX Price Analysis

After peaking at $65 on March 18, Avalanche (AVAX) retraced to $30 by April 13, entering a prolonged consolidation. This period ended with a breakout to $41 on May 22, but AVAX has since declined, likely approaching the final phase of this downturn.

The $65 high concluded a bull cycle that began in October when AVAX was at $9, forming a five-wave impulse.

Wave analysis indicates that the recent low on Aug. 5 may have marked the end of a corrective C wave. The oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 25% hints at a possible bottom for a new uptrend, though further downside remains possible.

After breaking down from its ascending structure, AVAX hit a low of $24 on Oct. 25, the same level as Oct. 3, followed by a 13% recovery. The breakout momentum continued to a lower low of $22 on Nov. 4.

Since then, the price has increased by over 15%, reaching a high of $26.45 today, and is still on an upward trajectory.

The key question is whether this recovery will continue. A sustained rise above the ascending trendline could signal a bullish reversal, while a drop below $24 would favor a bearish outlook.

AVAX Price Prediction

If AVAX has started a new bullish phase following its 74% correction to Aug. 5, it may have completed an initial five-wave pattern in a leading diagonal formation.

Testing $20 as support on Sept. 6, AVAX rose 50% to $30 by Sept. 27, marking the sequence’s final push. 

The following downturn to Nov. 4 was a three-wave advancement, likely an ABC correction as the second sub-wave of the higher degree five-wave move. On the other hand, it could continue the downtrend since March. 

The presented scenarios depend on the count behind the ascending channel structure, whether it is a five-wave impulse as a leading diagonal or an ABC correction. If the count is bullish, a new advancement began on Nov. 4, leading AVAX to a high of $40. 

Alternatively, today’s high is still part of the downtrend, and an immediate downturn will result in further downtrend continuation at lower values than in August. 

About the Author

Nikola Lazic

Nikola Lazic is a cryptocurrency analyst and investor working in the industry since 2017. He holds a bachelor's degree in Sociology, which enables him to better understand the psychology behind the crowd´s positioning. Consequently his preferred analytical tool is Elliott Wave Theory in combination with price action analysis. Combining his experience in trading and investing with knowledge in content writing he strives to bring the most accurate and actionable information. Expertise: Cryptocurrencies, Technical analysis, Elliott Wave Theory, On-chain metrics, Research reports.

See more

[email protected] LinkedIn