AVAX rose 13% from its recent low of $24 but is now at a crossroad between scenarios. Which one will prevail?
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Key Takeaways
AVAX hovers near key $24 support, testing bullish resilience.
Recovery potential hinges on breaking above the ascending trendline.
A downturn below $24 could confirm a bearish continuation.
Following a peak at $65 earlier this year, AVAX has retraced substantially and is now testing key support levels.
This analysis explores recent price movements, identifies potential support and resistance points, and examines scenarios that could define AVAX’s next trend—a renewed bullish phase or a continuation of the downtrend.
After reaching a high of $65 on March 18, the price of AVAX retraced to $30 by April 13, followed by a prolonged consolidation period.
This sideways movement ended with a breakout above $30, bringing the price to $41 on May 22. Since then, AVAX has trended downward, likely nearing the final leg of its decline.
The $65 peak marked the conclusion of an extended uptrend that began in October when AVAX was trading at $9. This five-wave impulse formed a broader bull cycle, and a corrective phase followed.
AVAXUSD at ascending resistance | Credit: Nikola Lazic/Tradingview
Wave analysis suggests that AVAX may have completed its C wave in an ABC correction, hitting a low on Aug. 5.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped to an oversold level of 25%, hinting at a potential bottom and the start of a new uptrend. However, while AVAX has seen a recovery, there’s a chance that this rise could still be corrective, pointing to further downside.
AVAX broke down from the ascending structure, falling to a low of $24 on Oct. 25, the same level as on Oct. 3. A 13% recovery followed, but can it continue moving up?
AVAX Price Prediction
If AVAX has initiated a new bullish phase after its 74% correction to Aug. 5, it may have completed its first five-wave pattern.
The wave count, while complex, suggests this might be a valid leading diagonal with overlapping wave structures.
Testing the $20 support on Sept. 6, AVAX saw a 50% rise to $30 by the 27, potentially marking the final push in this sequence. If so, the decline may signal the first correction in a new bull phase, with support at the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $24.
AVAXUSD further rise will confirm bullish scenario | Credit: Nikola Lazic/Tradingview
Alternatively, the $30 peak could signify the end of an ABC correction, with the current decline marking a larger downtrend that could lead AVAX below its Aug. 5 low, potentially toward $15.
Since the price is currently in an uptrend, we will see which scenario is more likely. A bullish scenario will look more likely if the rise continues, bringing AVAX above the ascending trendline again.
At the same time, if we see a downturn below $24, the likelihood of a bearish one will be higher.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Nikola Lazic is a cryptocurrency analyst and investor working in the industry since 2017. He holds a bachelor's degree in Sociology, which enables him to better understand the psychology behind the crowd´s positioning. Consequently his preferred analytical tool is Elliott Wave Theory in combination with price action analysis.
Combining his experience in trading and investing with knowledge in content writing he strives to bring the most accurate and actionable information.
