Key Takeaways
The Chainlink (LINK) price has shown mixed signals, with significant upward movements but lacking a clear five-wave bullish structure.
This analysis reviews recent price behavior, key support levels, and potential scenarios that may indicate LINK’s next direction.
The LINK price surged to $22.50 on March 11, an 81% increase from its Jan. 8 low of $12.50.
This came after a prolonged consolidation of around $15 since November, suggesting a possible accumulation phase.
The uptrend began with a breakout above $9 on Oct. 9 of the prior year, completing the first five-wave sequence of this bullish phase.
The subsequent downturn aligns with wave two of a broader bull market, where LINK found support at the 0.786 Fibonacci level near $9 on Aug. 5, coinciding with an oversold daily Relative Strength Index (RSI).
Following this, LINK rebounded, hitting $11.36 on Aug. 22 and $13 on Sept. 28, potentially indicating the early stages of a bull phase.
However, a clear five-wave pattern is still absent, suggesting caution remains warranted.
The hourly chart shows that LINK has started a lower-degree five-wave uptrend. The initial rally from Aug. 5 to 8 was followed by a symmetrical triangle, forming the first two sub-waves.
The following breakout above the triangle’s resistance suggested a third sub-wave, but the subsequent decline below $10 invalidated this bullish scenario.
LINK reached a new high of $13 before a 20% pullback to ascending support, forming another higher low on Oct. 10.
Since then, it has attempted to proceed with the uptrend but has struggled to surpass $12.50, reverting to ascending support.
On Oct. 28, it fell below, but this was a fakeout, with the price quickly snapping back above the ascending trendline.
From its recent low, LINK recovered by 8%, and although this isn’t enough to call for a rally, the failed downside breakout could imply that there is still buyer interest.
The whole structure since Aug. 5 could be a complex correction with three consecutive ABC corrections.
That leaves the possibility of another rise to the ascending resistance at $14 for its last C wave to complete.
Alternatively, LINK could find resistance again at $12, making a decisive breakout to the downside on its third attempt.