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Arweave Price Reaches Yearly High First – Near Protocol Next in Line

Last Updated May 20, 2024 1:50 PM
Valdrin Tahiri
Last Updated May 20, 2024 1:50 PM
By Valdrin Tahiri
Verified by Peter Henn

Key Takeaways

  • Near Protocol has increased by 82% since bottoming on April 13.
  • Meanwhile, Arweave has increased by 118% since its bottom on April 12.
  • AR already reached a new yearly high but NEAR has not done so yet.

Most of the crypto market reached its highs in March and corrected in April. Bitcoin made a lower low on April 19. However numerous altcoins reached their lows on April 13, then created higher lows and have increased since.

NEAR and AR are two of the best performers from large cap cryptocurrencies since that bottom. While they have similar long-term price movements, they differ in the short-term. More specifically, AR reached a new yearly high on May 17 while NEAR has yet to do so.

AR Reaches New Yearly High

The AR price started a five-wave upward movement in October 2023. The aforementioned April 13 low marked the bottom of wave four (black). The sub-wave count is in white, showing an extended wave three.

The ensuing increase caused a breakout from a descending resistance trend line and the $42 resistance area, confirming the correction is over. So, it is likely that AR has started the fifth and final wave of this upward movement. A potential target for the top of the increase is at $63.88. The 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of wave four creates this target.

AR Price Breakout
AR/USDT Daily Chart | Credit: TradingView

Once wave four is over, a significant and lengthy correction is expected. Since the entire five-wave upward movement has lasted for eight months until now, at least a two-month corrective period will be likely. Conversely, closing below $42 will mean the upward movement is already over and the correction has started.

Will NEAR Do the Same?

The NEAR price chart is very similar to that of AR. More specifically, NEAR completed wave four in its five-wave increase (white) on April 13. Then, it broke out from a descending resistance trend line and reclaimed the $7.70 resistance area. These portions of the movement are identical to those of AR.

However, the NEAR price has stagnated since the breakout, while AR moved above its yearly high. In any case, the wave count and price action are both bullish, predicting the continuing of the increase. A potential target for the top of wave five is at $11.90. Similarly, the 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of wave four creates this target.

NEAR Price Increase
NEAR/USDT Daily Chart | Credit: TradingView

Despite this bullish outlook, closing below $7.70 will mean another downward movement is likely before the NEAR price moves to a new yearly high.

NEAR Completes Correction

The NEAR price bounced on April 13, creating a long lower wick (green icon) and validating the $4.30 area as support. The price has increased over 70% since.

Even though NEAR fell to a low of $4.28, its immediate bounce caused a daily close of $5.20, taking the price above a long-term ascending support trend line. The trend line has existed for 190 days.

NEAR Price Long-Term Bounce
NEAR/USDT Daily Chart | Credit: TradingView

On April 22, NEAR also broke out from a short-term descending resistance trend line, signaling the correction is complete.

The RSI & MACD both show bullish readings (green circle). They are trending upward; the RSI has moved above 50 and the MACD has made a bullish cross.

The shorter-term six-hour time frame shows a completed W-X-Y correction (black) where waves W: Y had a nearly 1:1 ratio. The ration is the most common one in such corrective structures.

NEAR Price Completed Correction
NEAR/USDT Six-Hour Chart | Credit: TradingView

Then, NEAR moved above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and now attempts to validate it as support. The price needs to increase by another 25% to reach its yearly high of $9.01.

If the wave count is accurate, NEAR can increase by 60% and reach the 1.61 external Fibonacci resistance at $11.83.

AR Price Bounce Leads to Increase

The AR price began a five-wave upward movement (black) in October 2023. The increase culminated with a new yearly high of $47.5 in March 2024. This likely marked the top of wave three, which extended. The sub-wave count is in white.

Then, the AR price corrected, leading to a low of $22 on April 13. The ensuing bounce likely marked the end of the corrective wave four. This is because the bounce occurred right at the support trend line of the channel connecting waves one and three. This is a common level for wave four to come to an end.

If the count is accurate, AR will soon begin the fifth and final wave toward the $63 resistance area.

AR Price Bounce Starts Wave Five
AR/USDT Daily Chart | Credit: TradingView

The short-term six-hour chart shows a completed A-B-C corrective structure (white), where waves A:C had an exactly 1:1.61 ratio. This is the second most common ratio in such structures. It further supports the possibility that wave four ended and wave five has begun.

However, the price action is not as bullish as that of NEAR . This is because the 0.618 Fib retracement resistance level and a descending resistance trend line rejected AR (red icon), marking an end to the short-term increase.

Now, AR is correcting toward a short-term support at $28.60.

AR Short-Term Rejection
AR/USDT Six-Hour Chart | Credit: TradingView

If the count is accurate, wave five will reach at least the 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of the drop, which is at $63.7. The yearly high of 47.8 is almost 50% above the current price.

NEAR and AR Poised to Reach New Yearly High

Both NEAR and AR are primed to continue increasing. Since AR has already reached its yearly high, it is likely to lead the way while NEAR follows behind.

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