Key Takeaways
Zcash (ZEC) has faced a prolonged bear market since its peak in May 2021, losing a substantial portion of its value.
However, the recent recovery from July’s low has shown promise, with prices rebounding significantly. Current trends hint at a potential shift to a bullish cycle, signaling a new phase for ZEC’s market performance.
The price of ZEC was in a bear market from May 11, 2021, when it reached a bull cycle high of $414. From there, it continuously declined, losing 95% of its value to $16 on July 6, 2024.
The price formed a descending channel on the daily log chart and made a five-wave downtrend, likely a WXYXZ correction.
With the long-lasting downtrend ending in July, a recovery followed. The price increased parabolically to $33 at first and then to a yearly high of $45 on Aug. 14.
It proceeded with a 45% pullback, falling to the $25 area on Oct. 4. Since then, it started increasing again, regaining the previous loss and returning to its yearly high. This 80% recovery could signal further upside movement as the bull cycle for ZEC started.
On the other hand, the price might find resistance at the prior high and cause a steep rejection.
Zooming into the 4-hour chart and examining the wave structure behind the bullish trend from July, we can see a strong chance that ZEC is in a bull phase.
A five-wave impulse developed from July’s low to August’s high, followed by a three-wave correction corresponding to the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
The last uptrend from Oct. 3 also displays a five-wave pattern but looks completed or near completion. This is why we consider it the lower degree wave 1 from the higher degree five-wave move.
As such, it should now be followed by a retracement for its wave 2, which will maintain a higher low above $30.
If this continues, the next uptrend could lead ZEC to a new yearly high. Our first target is $65, while our next is $75.
That would be a 1.618 Fib extension level, so ZEC should continue its uptrend even higher in the long run.