Crypto market enters altcoin season for the first time since 2024 | Credit: Veronica Cestari
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Key Takeaways
The Altcoin Season Index hits its highest since Dec. 2024, signaling the start of alt season.
This week, a potential Fed rate cut could inject liquidity and amplify appetite for altcoins.
BTC.D dropped, breaking down from a descending triangle, confirming capital rotation.
The crypto market has officially entered its first confirmed altcoin season since December 2024, with a sector-wide rally driving global market capitalization above $4 trillion.
The last time, the euphoria was short-lived as altcoin prices crashed weeks later.
Will history repeat itself, or is this cycle different? In this analysis, CCN breaks down what’s driving the current surge.
We also examine whether this momentum can outlast the patterns of last year.
Altcoins Log Explosive Gains
According to Blockchaincenter data, the Altcoin Season Index has surged to 76 — its highest level since Dec. 8, 2024.
This metric measures whether altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin. A reading above 75 officially signals “altcoin season”, meaning most top tokens deliver more substantial returns than BTC.
In simple terms, investors are shifting capital from Bitcoin into the broader altcoin market, chasing higher gains.
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The potential impact is twofold. On the bullish side, a strong altcoin season sparks rapid rallies across mid- and low-cap tokens, driving explosive short-term profits and boosting overall market liquidity.
However, history shows that such phases can also precede corrections, as overheated altcoins tend to be more volatile and vulnerable once momentum fades.
Over the past 30 days, several altcoins have dramatically outperformed Bitcoin. Among the top 100, standouts include:
Memecore (M): +531%
MYX Finance (MYX): +483%
Pump.fun (PUMP): +137%
OKB (OKB): +115%
Story (IP): +80%
With the Altcoin Season Index sitting at 82, the data shows that altcoins are firmly in the driver’s seat. The big question, however, is whether this dominance can last longer than the short-lived surge of late 2024.
That’s why digging deeper into the indicators defining this cycle is vital. In this analysis, we’ll break down the technical signals and macro factors that could determine whether the 2025 altcoin season has real staying power or risks fizzling like the last one.
ETH/BTC Bullish Pennant Broken
The first key indicator to watch is the ETH/BTC ratio. This ratio measures Ethereum’s strength relative to Bitcoin and has long been a leading signal for altcoin performance.
When ETH outperforms BTC, it triggers a broader rotation of capital into altcoins. A rising ETH/BTC ratio has coincided with the start of powerful altcoin rallies in past cycles.
On the daily chart, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) also shows signs of strength. It is on the verge of breaking its downtrend, and if it pushes higher, the next target would be a clean break above the zero signal line.
Such a move would confirm that buying pressure is returning, strengthening the case for Ethereum to extend its gains against Bitcoin. If sustained, this shift could catalyze altcoin season, as traders typically rotate deeper into altcoins once ETH leads the charge.
Beyond crypto-specific signals, macro factors are also in play. There are strong signs that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) this week.
A rate cut would inject fresh liquidity into the markets, lower borrowing costs, and boost risk appetite across asset classes. For crypto, such a move acts as a tailwind for altcoins, as it happened during the last three to four months of 2024.
Another key indicator to track is Bitcoin’s dominance (BTC.D). It stood at 57.81% at press time, but technically, it has broken below the horizontal support of a descending triangle.
Adding to this outlook, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) has flipped negative, reflecting weakening momentum for Bitcoin relative to the broader market.
A decline in BTC dominance typically means capital rotates into altcoins, fueling stronger rallies across the sector.
If this trend continues, it could be yet another confirmation that the altcoin season is gaining strength.
Altcoin Season Target $2.3T
To gauge whether the altcoin season can extend, we turn to TOTAL2, the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin.
At press time, TOTAL2 stood at $1.7 trillion, reflecting the sheer weight of capital rotating into altcoins.
The daily chart adds more evidence of strength. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has formed a bullish crossover, a signal that momentum is shifting in favor of buyers.
Historically, such crossovers on TOTAL2 mark the beginning of powerful rallies. If sustained, we might see a prolonged 2025 altcoin season as the market cap might hit $2.3 trillion.
However, if buying pressure for altcoins fades or the Fed refrains from cutting interest rates, this altcoin season might not extend beyond next month. It could also be invalidated if Bitcoin dominance rises above 63% again.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
