Rate Cuts Are Coming in September — History Shows Crypto Could Explode

Many wonder what the Federal Reserve’s likely September interest rate cut will mean for the crypto market.

In the past, rate cuts have often coincided with big crypto rallies, making this move worth watching.

But the connection isn’t always straightforward. Continue reading to find out more.

Fed Rate Cuts

The U.S. Federal Reserve has kept its interest rates steady at 4.5% since December 2024.

They have held firm despite numerous calls by U.S. President Donald Trump to lower rates and even threatening to fire Fed Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

However, the chances of a September rate cut have jumped to 90%, marking this year’s first cut.

That is not all, since the chances of three rate cuts this year have increased to 50%, taking the interest rate to 3.5-3.75%.

Previously, the Fed cut rates numerous times between August and December 2024.

Before that, they cut rates from June 2019 to April 2020, when they fell to 0.25% and remained there for two years in response to the coronavirus crash.

In this article, we will analyze periods when the rates were cut and find a correlation with the crypto market to determine what will happen in September.

Crypto and Fed Rate Cuts

When plotting the rate cuts and the crypto market cap side by side, it is visible that the start of the rate cut decline (black) coincided with a crypto bull market.

The rate cuts in 2020 and 2024 marked the beginning of parabolic rallies in the crypto market.

So, it is clear that the decline in interest rates positively affects risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies.

However, a more interesting way to analyze the cuts is to examine each specific month and determine whether the crypto market rallied during it.

The correlation is not as defined in this more specific analysis.

The Fed started cutting rates in July 2019, and made cuts in September, October, and March 2020, and the crypto market was green only in October 2019.

In 2024, the Fed cut rates in September, November, and December. September and November were green, while December was red.

So, out of seven months when the Fed cut rates, three have been bullish, but three have been bearish.

Historically, the start of cuts has coincided with the beginning of crypto market rallies. If the Fed cuts rates three times in 2025, the chances of a market rally become significantly bigger.

However, the market’s performance in September cannot be accurately predicted based on whether the Fed will cut rates.

Crypto Bull Market

History shows that while the start of rate cuts can spark momentum in crypto, the short-term results are mixed.

Only three saw crypto gains out of seven months when rates were cut.

So, even if a September cut happens, it doesn’t guarantee a rally right away, but it means one will likely occur by the end of the year.

About the Author

Valdrin Tahiri

Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.

He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.

Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.

He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.

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