Altcoin Market Cap Jumps 20% — 2025 Altseason Still in Doubt

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin’s Dominance Rate (BTCD) has decreased since February.
• The Altcoin Market Cap (ALTCAP) reclaimed a support area.
• Will the ongoing upward movement hold, or is it a relief rally?
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The Altcoin Market Cap did not reach a new all-time high this year, topping nearly 5% below the 2021 all-time high. So far, it has fallen by 30% since the cycle high.

While ALTCAP broke down from a critical support area, it reclaimed it following Donald Trump’s announcement of a strategic U.S. crypto reserve.

So, the main question is: Will this be the beginning of another upward movement, or is it simply a relief rally? Let’s examine the charts and see what’s next.

Altcoin Market Cap Support

The Altcoin Market Cap has decreased since its $1.64 trillion in December 2024, which was under the $1.71 trillion all-time high of 2021.

Since then, the ALTCAP has twice fallen below the $1.20 trillion horizontal support area. However, it created long lower wicks (green icons) each time and reclaimed it. ALTCAP still trades inside this area.

A breakdown below $1.20 trillion would be critical since this is the final support area before $800 billion. A breakdown below it could cause a significant plunge.

Technical indicators give a bearish outlook. The drop was preceded by bearish divergences in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD). Afterward, the RSI fell below 50 while the MACD made a bearish cross.

So, the weekly chart is leaning slightly bearish, making it unclear if there will be an altseason in 2025. The Altcoin Season Index shows a value of 18 , which is Bitcoin season.

So, the weekly and daily time frames suggest the ongoing breakout will likely be a relief rally. Thus, another downward movement could eventually follow it.

BTCD Holds Steady

The Bitcoin Dominance Rate has increased inside an ascending parallel channel since September 2022. Currently, it trades just above its midline after rejecting resistance in January (red icon) at a high of 64.34%.

Despite the decline, the BTCD still trades above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance level at 60.32%, which is critical in determining if BTCD has topped or if this trend is still bullish.

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Technical indicators show some bearish signs. More specifically, nullish divergences in both the RSI and MACD (orange) are developing since October 2024.

Nevertheless, these indicators previously generated such divergences for over a year without causing a decline, putting their validity in question.

Because of these mixed readings, it is unclear if the upward movement will continue or if the BTCD will begin to fall and eventually break down from the channel. A channel breakdown in 2025 is required for altseason to begin.

Indecision Rules

While the ALTCAP bounce is a positive sign for the hopes of an altseason in 2025, the BTCD increased during it, confirming that Bitcoin still rules the markets. Moreover, the ALTCAP long-term readings still lean bearish.

The only decisive sign that would confirm the beginning of an altcoin season would be a BTCD breakdown from the long-term channel. It is unclear if this will happen.