Bitcoin Dominance Declines but Altcoin Season in 2025 Remains in Doubt

Key Takeaways

• The Bitcoin Dominance Rate (BTCD) has fallen since its February highs.
• The Altcoin Market Cap trades inside a long-term descending channel.
• Will there be an altcoin season in 2025, or did it end in 2024 instead?

The current crypto market cycle has had a subdued altcoin season compared to previous ones.

Bitcoin’s dominance has occasionally dipped, but its upward trend has existed for almost 900 days.

The Altcoin Market Cap (ALTCAP) also topped in 2024, 5% below its all-time high. The ensuing decline has raised fears that the altcoin season is already over and 2025 will be bearish.

Let’s examine the charts to assess the likelihood of this scenario.

Uncertainty in BTCD

The Bitcoin Dominance Rate has increased inside an ascending parallel channel for 896 days, reaching the channel’s resistance and support trend lines numerous times during this period.

Most recently, it reached the channel’s resistance trend line in February (black icon), creating a long upper wick.

This coincided with the highest BTCD value of this cycle at 64.34%. BTCD created a long upper wick afterward and has fallen since.

Despite the considerable decline, BTCD is still above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance level at 60.32%.

A fall below this level, combined with the rejection, would be a decisive sign that the upward movement has ended since it would also cause a breakdown from the channel.

Supporting this bearish scenario, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) have generated bearish divergences. Nevertheless, similar divergences have failed to produce any reaction for 2024.

As a result, it is unclear if the BTCD trend is bullish or bearish. A breakdown from the channel will confirm a bearish trend while creating a support level, and a higher low above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level will be the opposite.

Altcoin Season in 2025?

The Altcoin Market Cap (ALTCAP) reached a high of $1.64 trillion in December 2024 and has fallen since. Interestingly, this was not a new all-time high price; it was slightly below $1.71 trillion.

A bearish divergence (orange) in the RSI and MACD led to the decline, which culminated in a low of $1 trillion. Despite the low, ALTCAP bounced and traded inside the $1.20 trillion horizontal area.

As long as ALTCAP trades above this level, an altcoin season in 2025 remains possible. However, a breakdown will confirm that the bear market has started.

The daily chart presents a more positive outlook. According to it, ALTCAP has finished an A-B-C correction (red), where waves A:C had a 1:1.61 ratio.

The Feb. 3 liquidation event marked the bottom of the correction, causing ALTCAP to fall below the channel’s support trend line briefly.

The altcoin market has bounced since, reclaiming the support trend line. Nevertheless, it failed to reclaim the $1.30 trillion horizontal resistance area. Doing so is imperative for the future trend to remain bullish.

ALTCAP was rejected once it reached it the first time (black icon) but has created a higher low and could make another breakout attempt soon.

Therefore, the altcoin season hopes to rest on whether the price will reclaim this resistance or break down from the channel instead.

Unclear Trend Ahead

The BTCD and ALTCAP make it difficult to determine whether there will be an altcoin season in 2025. The critical resistance levels for both are 60.32% and 1.20 trillion.

The reaction once these levels are reached will be critical in assessing the possibility of an altcoin season. The altcoin season index is also neutral , adding to the uncertainty.