AEVO Price Falls to New All-Time Low as 750% Token Unlock Balloons Circulating Supply
How Will Token Unlock Affect AEVO Price? | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
Key Takeaways[/focus-text-wrap
- The AEVO circulating supply will increase nearly eightfold on May 15.
- AEVO is already facing selling pressure, reaching a new all-time low on May 15.
- How does this unlock compare to other unlocks and how will it affect the price?
AEVO is not a well-known cryptocurrency, only the 393rd-largest crypto by market cap. However, it was recently thrust in the spotlight due to a massive token unlock, which will greatly increase the circulating supply.
The AEVO price is already mired in a downward trend. Given the historical pattern of token unlocks exerting bearish pressure on asset prices, it’s reasonable to anticipate a similar scenario for AEVO. If this plays out, where might AEVO’s price bottom out, and what factors could potentially reverse this trend, if any?
How Big is the AEVO Token Unlock?
AEVO has a circulating supply of 110 million tokens. It is set to release another 827 million tokens on May 15, which will increase its circulating supply by 753% .
At the current AEVO price, this will inflate the market cap to 938 million, catapulting AEVO from the 393rd-largest crypto to the 82nd, landing it somewhere between between The Sandbox (SAND) and Axie Infinity (AXS).
The maximum supply is set at one billion tokens, so this will mean that future emissions after this unlock will be limited.
AEVO has by far the largest token unlock this month. The only other unlock bigger than 100% of the circulating supply is from PYTH, at 142%. AVAX, APT and ARB have unlocks of 2-4% relative to their supply.
Earlier this month, the SUI and DYDX token unlocks had a bearish effect on the price. The SUI token unlock was 34% of the circulating supply while the DYDX one was 11%. So, judging by the effect of much smaller previous unlocks, the 753% increase in the circulating supply of AEVO is probable to have a negative effect on its price.
On top of the downward pressure caused by the emissions, the AEVO price fell to a new all-time low of $0.97 on May 15
AEVO Price Falls to New All-Time Low
The AEVO price has fallen over 74% since its all-time high of $3.94 on March 28. The drop has followed a descending resistance trend line, which more recently caused a rejection in May (red circle). The decline led to a new all-time low.
There are no bullish reversal signs in place. To the contrary, the RSI is trending downward and just crossed below 30, both considered signs of a bearish trend.
The wave count also gives a bearish prediction. Since the aforementioned all-time high, AEVO has been completing a five-wave decrease (black). The defining characteristic of this decline is the symmetrical triangle that constructs wave four.
AEVO has already reached the first target for the bottom at $1. The 1.61 external Fibonacci retracement of wave four creates this target. Because of the bearish readings and massive sell side pressure created by the unlock, AEVO is likely to break down from this level.
Then, the next support will be at $0.46. The target aligns well with the extended fifth wave.
Despite this bearish AEVO price prediction, breaking out from the descending resistance trend line will indicate the correction is over. As it stands, there are no signs pointing to this possibility.
Further Downside Likely
The AEVO price faces a tough road ahead based in its price action alone. The extensive AEVO token unlock further exacerbates the selling pressure, potentially prolonging the downward trend. Despite already dropping 70%, another 50% plunge in on the horizon.
